Six months after the start of social isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, energy consumption shows steady signs of recovery, with more growth projected in the coming months, according to a recent study by the Energy Trading Chamber Electricity - CCEE. The perspective is that the National Interconnected System - SIN ends the year with a volume consumed 2% lower than that registered in 2019.

Regarding the overall load of the system, the estimate is a reduction of 2.3%. The reading is more optimistic than the one released in July, when there was the 2nd Quarterly Review for the Annual Planning of the Energy Operation 2020/2024. At that time, CCEE, the Energy Research Company - EPE and the National Electric System Operator - ONS foresaw a retraction of up to 3% of the load this year.

For the last quarter of 2020, consumption is expected to return to the same levels as in 2019. In October, November and December, the volume of energy consumed is expected to be between 64.6 average MW and 66.4 average MW, values very close to those recorded in these months last year.

"The results for July, August and September were better than we initially expected, which led to this improvement in the projection for the year as a whole", evaluates Rui Altieri, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CCEE. "Overcoming the period of greatest retraction in economic activity, we expect an average growth of 3.9% per year until 2024", he projects.

For the analysis of the period from September to December, CCEE used as reference the behavior of the system load provided for in the Monthly Program of the Electric Energy Operation - PMO of October. As a premise for the transmission loss factor of the basic network, the Average between January and August this year, of 4.5%, was considered.

Distance consumption 

The average consumption of electricity in the six months of social distance in the National Interconnected System - SIN (between 3/21 to 9/18) was 4.5% below that verified in the same period in 2019. In the regulated market, consumption fell 5 , 4% on the same basis of comparison and in the free market the fall was 2.5%.

In the analysis carried out between September 1st and 18th, a period that combined high temperatures in the center-south of the country with the beginning of the economic recovery process, there was an increase in the consumption of SIN of 1.7% when compared to September 2019. If performance in the different contracting environments is analyzed, there is a drop of 1.2% in the captive market and an increase of 8.4% in the free market. However, when the effect of migration and free market growth is expunged, the captive market rises by 1% and the FTA by 3.6%.

The preliminary results take into account the total consumption of the captive market (known by the acronym ACR), in which the consumer buys energy directly from the distributors, and of the free market (ACL), which allows the choice of the supplier and the negotiation of contractual conditions. In addition, the study does not calculate data from Roraima, the only state not connected to the national electricity system.

For more details on the recent panorama of the energy sector, consult the CCEE online tool, which presents consumption analyzes on a daily basis, allowing filters by contracting environment, submarket, federative unit and by activity segment.

Fields of activity 

When analyzing the behavior of consumption by industry, excluding the effects of migration and the growth of the free market, the segments of vehicles, services and textiles were the ones that presented the most significant falls in the six months of isolation, compared to the same period in 2019.

Only 5 sectors (food, sanitation, commerce, non-metallic minerals and telecommunications) showed positive variation during the period of isolation. When considering the purge of the effect of migration, only the sanitation and food sectors showed positive variation.

These factors reflect aspects observed during the quarantine, such as the more intensive use of online commerce, the adoption of the home office, more internet demand and food consumption at home, among other factors.

Regional analysis 

Only four states had an increase in energy consumption in the six quarantine months, compared to the same period last year (Pará, 5.5%; Amapá, 5.0%; Mato Grosso, 1.6%; and Maranhão, 1, 5%). São Paulo, with the largest industrial park in the country, registered a decrease of 6.3%. In the Southeast region, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo showed even worse results, with decreases of 7.7% and 8.4%, respectively.

When the analysis turns to the period from 01 to 18 September, Rio Grande do Sul remains the state with the biggest drop in consumption, compared to the same period last year (-7%), while the Amazonas is the one with the highest increase (7%).