Amid the drop in revenue caused by reduced demand and fears of increased delinquency in sales already billed, natural gas distributors are attempting with Petrobras a new agreement to ease their commitments, while seeking government support for obtain loans that support their activities economically. The expectation of the sector is that the government can help to make possible the creation of a sectorial fund, estimated at about R $ 3 billion, which guarantees liquidity for companies in the face of the pandemic.

The request recalls the solution adopted for the electricity sector, in which the government has already defined specific regulations through a syndicated loan. "We are not looking for a mirror, the same solution to apply in the gas sector, we are not talking about something similar to what was approved for the electricity sector," said Strategy and Market Director at Abegás, Marcelo Mendonça, in an interview with Broadcast. “We are signaling that the problem is the same: the same consumer with difficulty paying the energy tariff, who will have difficulty paying for gas. It is necessary to find a solution for consumer default, because it is the same problem ”. Mendonça recalled that, in both sectors, distribution concessions are collectors for the entire supply chain, but are left with less than 20% of the total. In the event of high default rates, therefore, they run the risk of failing to honor their commitments, affecting the entire sector.

The difference between natural gas and the electric sector, in addition to the size and degree of dependence of the country in relation to energy, is in the complexity of the chain. In the electricity sector, there is a multiplicity of electricity producers, which supply energy to a diverse group of distributors, via an extensive network of transmission lines, controlled by different companies. In the natural gas sector, the supply of the input is in the hands of Petrobras, while the transport of the molecule is in charge of a few groups, including the state company itself.

In the midst of the pandemic, Petrobras has already closed an agreement with the distributors to make the payment of contracts for the purchase of the input more flexible. At the time, it was agreed to install the invoices due in April, May and June in three installments, in addition to the suspension of penalties and the take-or-pay and ship-or-pay clauses of the contracts (mechanisms that establish the payment for a minimum volume of gas, regardless of the amount consumed).

But the concern of the sector became the fulfillment of this agreement in the face of a foreseeable worsening of the mismatch in the cash flow of the distributors, in view of the drop in sales and the increase in defaults. "Even with deferral, when the third month arrives, I will pay the entire invoice, because I will pay for the months in which I had the flexibility", said Mendonça. "And in July, I paid the full rate and two-thirds more."

Now the sector is trying to extend the agreement with Petrobras, while defending government support to enable a loan that guarantees liquidity as of the second half. "We may be able to get an extension, this is being discussed and evaluated together with Petrobras," said Mendonça. Another point is government support to give sustainability to the chain at this time. According to the executive, the government has been sensitive to the issue and discussions have evolved positively. "I believe that we may have a solution soon," he said.

Fall in revenues 

According to a survey carried out by Abegás with concessionaires in all regions of the country, the consumption of natural gas by industries fell 8.2% in March, compared to the same period last year, to 25.3 million cubic meters / day, lower volume since December 2017. Demand for Natural Gas (CNG) decreased 20.4% in the same comparison, while the commercial class consumed 8.7% less.

According to the entity, still preliminary data point to an even stronger fall in April. The association states that some distributors recorded a decrease of 35% in industrial consumption compared to the same month last year, while the automotive segment (CNG) in some cases fell 40% and, the commercial class, 60%.

Abegás reported that it has not yet concluded an analysis on the behavior of defaults after the start of the pandemic in Brazil, and that it awaits the closing of May to verify how much of the accounts in arrears last month remained open this month, which would configure an aggravated default situation. According to the executive, last month there was already a lower volume of collection. "The sector's historical default level is around 3%, but April has already presented a level higher than this," he said.