A study published by the journal Nature Communications, this Wednesday, April 29, points out that, in 2030, the global emission of greenhouse gases will be 22.4 billion tons of CO2-equivalent (22.4 GtCO2eq) above the limit necessary so that global warming does not exceed 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The article Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement is signed by researchers from several countries, including professors at Coppe / UFRJ Roberto Schaeffer and Pedro Rochedo, and researcher Alexandre Koberle, doctor in Energy Planning at Coppe.

In short, if current climate policies are maintained, countries will not comply with the Paris Agreement. The situation is even more critical if we take into account the recommendation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that global warming does not exceed 1.5º C. In this case, the gap will be even greater: 28.2 gigatonnes of CO2.

According to Coppe professor Roberto Schaeffer, to close this gap until 2030, the use of renewable energy should grow 6.9%, energy efficiency should grow 9.6% (2 ° C scenario) or, respectively, 13% and 17.5% (1.5ºC scenario). The study was based on public policy databases from the seven countries (Brazil, China, United States, India, Japan, Russia and the European Union) that emit the most greenhouse gases (GHG) and an analysis of multi-model scenarios.

The scenarios presented by the study serve as an alert for all countries to accelerate the implementation of renewable technologies and energy efficiency. The recommendation applies both to emerging countries, such as Brazil and India, and to nations in economies in transition, such as Russia, and to more advanced economies such as those of the European Union, Japan and the United States.

In 2023, the combined efforts of the signatory countries to the Paris Agreement will be evaluated. According to estimates, all countries assessed would fail to achieve their own proposed contributions in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Further afield, they will still have to fulfill what is necessary to achieve the IPCC recommendations, a more ambitious target that limits global warming to 1.5º C.

The article recommends a careful redesign of climate policies in international cooperation so that greenhouse gas emissions simply do not migrate from one economic sector to another, or are transferred from one country to another. For this, it is necessary to increase the regulatory power of the different governments. Integrated assessment models (IAMs), such as Coffe (global IAM) and BLUES (national IAM), developed by researchers from Coppe's Energy Planning Program, can assist in this redesign.