The lower price of a number of exported commodities and an uptick in imports pulled the Brazilian balance of trade down in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2018. Nonetheless, this is the third best performance in history for the first six months of a year ($27.13 billion), surpassed only by the first half-year in 2018 ($30.02 billion) and 2017 ($36.21 billion). The surplus is 9.6 percent lower than the same time span last year.

In June, Brazil exported $5.02 billion more than it bought from overseas. Despite the 13.3 percent slip from the surplus in June last year, the value is the third best for the month, outdone only in June 2018 ($5.79 billion) and 2017 ($7.18 billion).

Commodities

After closing out 2018 with a surplus of $58.959 billion, the balance of trade saw a decline in the first half-year, pulled chiefly by the performance of exports, down 1.8 percent in the daily average criterion, standing at $110.89 billion in the first six months of the year. The increase, according to official figures, was led mainly by the average 3.33 percent reduction in export prices, which failed to make up for the 1.58 increase in the amount shipped.

In agribusiness, the average price of exports went down 10.9 percent compared to a 4.7 percent reduction in the average price of goods in the manufacturing industry. Only extractivism, benefited especially by the oil hike in the international market, saw a price rise—5.1 percent.

Imports, on the other hand, were on the rise. In the first half-year, the country bought $83.76 billion from abroad—up 0.8 percent from the same period last year. Capital goods purchased went up 5.4 percent from January to June. Acquisitions under intermediate goods rose 1.9 percent.

The average price of imported goods sank 5.92 percent in the first six months, but the amount bought from overseas increased 7.14 percent.

Estimate for 2019

After the balance of trade closed out 2018 at $58.959 billion, the second highest result in history, the market estimates a lower surplus in 2019. As per data from the Focus readout, a weekly survey with financial institutions published by the Central Bank, market analysts predict a $50.8 billion surplus for this year. Up to last month, the Economy Ministry expected a positive balance of $50.1 billion in 2019.