Article

Brazil will be back to business, by Armando Cavanha

Armando Cavanha F.,MBA teacher at FGV & Researcher
19/07/2016 15:40
Brazil will be back to business, by Armando Cavanha Imagem: Stéferson Faria/Agência Petrobras Visualizações: 959 (0) (0) (0) (0)

There are important things to do in Brazil to become attractive again for foreign investors. The absence of regular bid auctions, the Brazilian market crisis, Petrobras huge debt, unnecessary regulatory complication, unfitting new models as sharing production and transfer of rights, dozens of themes that had become more complex cumulatively over time. Some of these are involuntary, as the fluctuation of international oil prices, the global weakness of the economy. Others are local issues, like political and ideological constrains, managerial inexpertness.

 

But there is another side of the story. An interesting view, alluring, back to productive business. Proven reserves nowadays can supply with hydrocarbons decades the local market of fuels and industrial products. A significant growth of local gas output, a huge potential of subsalt reserves to be defined in more details (UERJ speaks at possible 172 billion barrels of oil equivalent, about ten times the current proven reserves). A country with a prepared young professionals and a trained based industry.

 

The US consumes about 19 million barrels per day, producing about 10. As a result, nearly 9 million barrels per day come from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc.

On the other hand, focusing only on subsea equipment as Christmas trees, manufacturers are all foreigners with manufacturing plants in the country (FMC, Cameron, Aker, GE, etc.) Almost all of them from the US where they concentrate decisions and main researches.

Is there a possible partnership on this issue? The US would support Brazil, helping and financing local investments, providing technology, equipment and services, leveraging faster local oil and gas production? The Brazilian surplus production would be exported to the US, in a vertical logistics without channels or complex seas? With this tradeoff would the US reduce dependence on non-stable countries, supposedly? A partnership in which the gains would be mutual?

 

The national local intelligence certainly will consider a serious review of thinking bases on natural resources and industrial capabilities. This is a question of maturity, a State vision instead of Government short approach. Also a significant simplification of existing rules, to make them stable for at least 20 years, a local content based on competitiveness, export and long term commercial reciprocity with other countries, independent professionals allocated to the agencies, decisions based on technical and professional aspects instead of personal and party connections. More incentives than penalties or fines. Two times per year bid auctions with fixed dates and variable content blocks. It’s the “bus theory”, “continuous frequency, variable content”.

 

In May 2016 OTC, it was detected perception of doubt, but hope related to Brazil. There is a clever act of waiting for good news about Brazil. Foreign companies are ready to come. At this time, they want to see the end of this complicated story that is going on in the country. Both the investments in local goods and services companies as the Exploration and Development of the potential production in the country are being considered. There are Reservoirs companies with good expectations, longing to see what is going to happen. They see the old fields mainly those in Campos Basin with irrefragable oil and gas to be exploited, without local priority right now. The Downstream is a big question, how it will be brought around with less or non-state hands, ships, pipelines, refineries, etc.

 

Visionary companies like Shell have already anticipated. Shell bought BG, has become an important site sector operator, and set foot in the pre-salt, believing in Brazil. The world's biggest Shell unit seems to be in Brazil in a few years. They are seeing things that we have not seen yet.

The country should be better organized; local entrepreneurs should work together and aligning with the State's view to maximize good results for the Brazilians. Long term results, reconstruction and preservation.

 

It could be said that Brazil is still a great option worldwide. Brazil will be back to business!!!

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