With underfunded by $ 6.1 billion in the first quarter of 2014, the trade balance can gain traction until June with the increase in soybean shipments. But while the movement should ensure a few months of surplus, the prospects for the year are uncertain. Experts work with the possibility of a small surplus, as the balance of approximately $ 2.6 billion recorded in 2013, or even negative balance for this year.

Villain of the trade balance last year, the oil did not show, so far, satisfactory reversal of the negative performance in 2014. Oil account deficit closed 2013 at $ 20.1 billion. In the first two months of this year decreased by $ 1 billion deficit in comparison with the same period last year of $ 4.6 billion to $ 3.6 billion. The government has expressed expectation of improvement. 

Another difficulty for performance improvement of the balance in 2014, already expected this, is the fall in commodity prices. In some cases, such as soybean, the volume of shipments offset the price. Brazilian producers anticipated sending soybeans to ensure the current prices, which contributed to the beginning of the year recorded in high volume. In February, for example, 2.79 million tons were shipped, 190.7% more than in the same period of 2013. The expectation is that, in April, May and June, with the effective start of the harvest, the amount grow and ensure surpluses to balance even with the drought in Parana and Mato Grosso in the rains cause reduction in the estimated harvest.

The decrease in Brazilian exports to Argentina and Venezuela, traditional trade partner, should also affect the balance in 2014. Argentina faces an economic crisis and has applied strong exchange rate relief. In Venezuela, there is fear of exporters to close business because there has been delay in release of payments.