According to forecast released today (17), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Association of Foreign Trade of Brazil (AEB), Brazilian exports should have fall in 2014, as well as imports. The entity estimates that sales of Brazil abroad next year are expected to reach US$ 239.053 billion, showing a decline of 0.4 % from the expected to the year 2013 closed at $ 239.904 billion exports.

For imports, the projected fall is between 3.1% forecast of U.S. $ 231.830 billion in 2014 and expected outcome this year, US$ 239.200 billion. The surplus in 2014, although small (US$ 7.223 billion ), will be 926 % above the $ 704 million expected for this year.

"All commodities are the prices low. This fall [of exports] will not only be higher because there is an expectation that, in 2014, the amount of oil exported by Petrobras 50% increase. This is going to compensate for the fall, "said AEB president, José Augusto de Castro, in an interview with 'Brazil Agency'. Without this factor, he warns that the Brazilian foreign trade would experience a trade deficit next year.

Compared to the revision made last July, the figures provided by AEB now reveal to increase Brazilian exports this year (US$ 230.511 billion, projected in July to US.$ 239.904 billion today). The same occurred in relation to imports. The revision made in July pointed exports to Brazil of U.S. $ 232.519 billion, against US$ 239.200 billion forecast on Tuesday (17).

José Augusto de Castro noted that in July this year, the AEB projected a trade deficit of around US$ 2 billion in Brazilian rock, that only "will not occur because the value of oil platforms that were exported this year 's record in all times, on the order of $6.5 billion." If not for this reason, the country would experience a trade deficit, Castro assured.

Assessed that Brazil will remain a commodity exporter in 2014. There, he said, chance to reverse this scenario in the short term. For that he must reduce the cost of logistics. "This will take at least three years to begin to get results".

Tax reform, reduced labor costs, reduced bureaucracy, are other measures that require a period of two to three to show results, "since they begin to be deployed now. Because, unfortunately, we will continue to depend on commodities (agricultural and mineral products sold on the international market)", he said.