The Corporate Confidence Index (ICE) rose by 1.0 point in December to 95.9 points, the highest level since March 97, 97.8. In the quarterly moving averages metric, the index advanced 1.9 points . 

The data are part of the Survey of Indices of Business Confidence, and were released today (2), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV IBRE). 

ICE consolidates the confidence indexes of the four sectors covered by the Business Surveys produced by FGV IBRE: industry, services, trade and construction. 

The data indicate that the Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 1.1 point to 91.2, the highest since the 92.8 points of June 2014. 

The Expectations Index (IE-E) rose 0.2 points to 101.0. It is the second consecutive month in which the IE-E exceeds 100 points. 

In the evaluation of FGV's Public Statistics superintendent, Aloisio Campelo Jr., the business confidence index is approaching normality. 

"After the third consecutive high, business confidence is approaching levels that portray a situation of normalcy," he said. 

For him, the second good news of December was that the index that measures the perception of the current situation (ISA) has advanced more than the index of expectations (IE), "what happens for the first time since July of 2018." 

"Despite the 15-point gap between ISA and IE in trade and construction, the economist argued, the recent gains in confidence must be explained by a gradual improvement in the economic environment, by the favorable effect of the end of the electoral period on expectations ".

Confidence by sector 

The FGV study also indicates that, for the second consecutive month, there was an increase in confidence in the margin in all sectors that are part of ICE. 

In the quarterly moving average, the variation was negative only in the industry, with fall of 0.4 point. With a strong rally in the month, trade confidence is up from 100 points for the first time since March 2014. 

Industry and services have advanced less and now have levels of confidence very close to each other. Construction confidence has risen for the fourth consecutive month, but remains the lowest among the four sectors.

Diffusion of Trust 

In December, there was a rise in confidence in 65% of the 49 segments that make up the Business Confidence Index. 

Last month, however, the high had reached 84% of the segments. 

For the November 2018 edition, information was collected from 4,701 companies between December 3 and 21. The next release of ICE will be on January 31.