The financial institutions consulted by the Central Bank (BC) raised the projection for the growth of the Brazilian economy this year from 3.21% to 3.45%.

For next year, the expectation for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - the sum of all goods and services produced in the country - is growth of 2.38%, compared to last week's forecast of 2.33%. In 2023 and 2024, the financial market projects a 2.5% GDP expansion.

The estimates are in today's Focus bulletin (17), a survey released weekly by the BC, with the projection for the main economic indicators.

Inflation 

The financial market forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) this year rose from 5.06% to 5.15%.

For 2022, the inflation estimate went from 3.61% to 3.64%. For both 2023 and 2024 the forecast for the index is 3.25%.

The estimate for 2021 is close to the upper limit of the inflation target that should be pursued by the Central Bank. The center of the target, defined by the National Monetary Council, is 3.75%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down. That is, the lower limit is 2.25% and the upper limit is 5.25%.

Interest rate 

To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the basic interest rate, the Selic, as its main instrument, currently set at 3.5% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).

For the financial market, the expectation is that the Selic will end 2021 at 5.5% per year. By the end of 2022, the basic rate is estimated to rise to 6.5% per year. Last week, the expectation was 6.25% per year. And for the end of 2023 and 2024, the forecast remains at 6.5% per year.

Exchange 

The expectation for the dollar quotation fell from R $ 5.35 to R $ 5.30 at the end of this year. By the end of 2022, the forecast is that the US currency will be R $ 5.35. The previous forecast was R $ 5.40.