Industrial activity continues to recover and is already at the pre-crisis level, according to the Industrial Survey, released today (22) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).

Installed Capacity Utilization (UCI) reached 71%, 2 percentage points higher than in August 2019 and 4 percentage points more compared to July. It is the highest percentage for the month since 2014, when the UCI stood at 72%.

The effective UCI indicator - in relation to the usual - increased 3.6 points from July to August and stood at 47.7 points. The index was above that recorded in August 2019 (44.1) and close to the 50-point dividing line. This means that the activity is at the usual level for the month. This indicator seeks to measure how heated industrial activity is. Values below 50 points indicate slowed activity.

"In the wake of this recovery, the entrepreneur's optimism also continued to increase, driven both by the recovery of the economy and by the beginning of the end-of-year period, seasonally more favorable to industrial production", says the survey.

The production evolution index reached 58.7 points in August, in the third consecutive month of increase. The index is close to that recorded in the previous month (0.7 point lower). Results above the 50-point dividing line indicate growth from the previous month. The farther from the 50-point line, the stronger and more widespread industrial production is.

According to CNI, even with months of growth in production, inventories are still falling and at a level below what was planned. The inventory level evolution index registered 46.3 points in August. Since April, inventories have been falling.

The effective stock index in relation to what was planned was below the 50-point dividing line (45.2 points), indicating that inventories remained lower than expected by industrial entrepreneurs.

Employment

The index of evolution in the number of employees reached 53.8 points in August. "The index had already crossed the 50-point dividing line in July (50.9-point index), but when it moved away from the line, it revealed greater dissemination of the movement to increase employment," says the CNI.

The August indicator is the highest in the monthly historical series, which started in January 2011. “It is necessary to take into account, however, that employment was at a very low level. In April, the index had shown a sharp drop in the number of employees, registering 38.2 points ”, he pondered.

Employment 

The index of evolution in the number of employees reached 53.8 points in August. "The index had already crossed the 50-point dividing line in July (50.9-point index), but when it moved away from the line, it revealed greater dissemination of the movement to increase employment," says the CNI.

The August indicator is the highest in the monthly historical series, which started in January 2011. “It is necessary to take into account, however, that employment was at a very low level. In April, the index had shown a sharp drop in the number of employees, registering 38.2 points ”, he pondered.

Expectations 

According to the Survey, all expectation indexes continued to grow in the survey conducted this month. "The entrepreneur's optimism has been driven both by the recovery of the economy and by the beginning of the seasonally more favorable period for industrial production," says the CNI.

The expectation index for demand in September increased 1.7 points, compared to August, to 63.1 points, the best result for the index in more than 10 years. The expectation index for raw material purchases increased by 1.9 points to 60.6 points. The last time the index had exceeded 60 points was in August 2010.

The expectation index for the number of employees was 54.8 points, the highest since April 2011. The export expectation increased by 3 points and reached 55.4 points.

The investment intention indicator grew for the fifth consecutive month and reached 55.3 points, an increase of 4.3 points compared to August. Since May, the indicator has accumulated growth of 18.6 points.

“Although the indicator has not yet resumed the February level of 58.7 points, the current result is greater than the historical average of the indicator, 49.5 points, and that recorded in September 2019, 53.5 points, ”says the survey.

The number of employees index went from 53.5 points in August to 54.8 points this month. In September 2019, it was at 50.7 points.