The Central Bank (BC) lowered the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) estimate from 4.39% to 4.38%, according to information in the Focus bulletin released today (4). Weekly, the document gathers projections for the main indicators of the economy.

O indicador ultrapassa o centro da meta de inflação, definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional de 4%. Contudo, se considerada a margem de 1,5 ponto percentual para cima ou para baixo, o índice, porém, permanece dentro da meta, já que pode variar de 2,5% a 5,5%.

The projection for 2021 was also reduced, for the second consecutive week, from 3.34% to 3.32%. The expected index for 2022 and 2023 remained unchanged, at 3.50% and 3.25%, respectively.

Outro parâmetro adotado pelo mercado financeiro é a taxa básica de juros, a Selic, que consiste no principal instrumento usado pelo BC para alcançar a meta de inflação. Nesta edição, a taxa prevista para 2021 foi diminuída de 3,13% para 3%. Quanto a 2022 e 2023, a expectativa é de que seja de 4,5% e 6%.

On December 9, the BC's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) announced the decision, taken unanimously, to keep the Selic at 2% per year. The reduction in the Selic rate favors cheaper credit and leads to less control of inflation, which stimulates production and consumption. Despite this, banks also consider other factors when defining the interest charged to consumers, such as default risk, profit margin and administrative expenses.

When the Copom raises the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this causes reflections in prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings. When the Selic is maintained, the committee considers that previous adjustments were sufficient to keep inflation under control.

Economic activity and dollar 

The financial market updated from 4.40% to 4.36% the value referring to the retraction of the economy in 2020, measured from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which results from the sum of all the country's wealth. As for this year, the revision went from 3.49% to 3.40%. For the years 2022 and 2023, it remained at 2.50%.

Also according to the Focus bulletin, the dollar exchange rate for 2021 was maintained at R $ 5.00. The estimated value for 2022, in turn, was reduced from R $ 4.55 to R $ 4.50.