Beginning in 2028, production-sharing contracts are expected to produce around two million barrels of oil per day, a volume that will account for more than 40% of Brazil’s total national output. Peak production is expected to be reached in 2030, based on the current commercial contracts. Developing the fields operating under production-sharing agreements will require an estimated US$ 71 billion in investments over the next five years, including the startup of seven FPSOs and the drilling of 182 wells between 2026 and 2030.

According to PPSA’s Technical Director, Tabita Loureiro (pictured), updated projections show that the Federal Government’s share of oil production will reach its peak in 2033, potentially reaching 506,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the daily share of natural gas produced under production sharing is expected to jump from the 480,000 m³/day recorded in September 2025 to 2.1 million m³/day in 2028, reaching its peak in 2034 at 3.8 million m³/day.

“The study demonstrates the excellent results of production-sharing contracts for Brazilian society. We are talking about substantial and growing production. Over the next ten years, the Federal Government will have a total of 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 9 billion m³ of natural gas to be offered to the market. This will provide potential revenues of approximately R$ 518 billion from the commercialization of these volumes alone through 2035,” she stated.

The study was developed based on three scenarios, using variations in Brent prices — Pessimistic, Reference, and Optimistic — and includes production from ten commercial production-sharing contracts, as well as the Mero and Atapu Unitization Agreements (AIPs) through February 2027, and the Jubarte and Tupi AIPs through 2035. In the Reference scenario, total public revenue over ten years is estimated to reach up to R$ 1.2 trillion, considering commercialization results, royalty payments, and taxes. The projections are part of the study “Estimated Outcomes of Production-Sharing Contracts and Unitization Agreements with Federal Participation for the 2026–2035 Period”, presented this Tuesday during the PPSA Technical Forum in Rio de Janeiro.

PPSA also presented ongoing monitoring of emission intensity associated with producing one barrel of oil equivalent under production-sharing contracts and the Tupi Unitization Agreement. The current indicator stands at 8.41 kgCO₂e/boe, while the OGCI average is around 17 kgCO₂e/boe, highlighting the sustainable performance of the pre-salt assets.

Access the full presentation in Portuguese.