The price of a barrel of oil should return to surpass the $ 50 mark only at the end of 2021, analysts said at an online event about commodities, promoted by the newspaper "Financial Times". Experts at WoodMackenzie, Andurand Capital and Trafigura project that, by the end of next year, global oil demand will be close to 100 million barrels per day - in a scenario with the existence of a covid-19 vaccine that could be affected by new waves of contamination in the coming months. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that world consumption today stands at 91.7 million, the lowest level since 2013.

"We are working on the vaccination hypothesis at the end of the first quarter of 2021. This would bring the demand for air fuels back to 2019 levels only in 2023. For now, the growth in consumption of these fuels will come mainly from China, on domestic flights" said Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president of research at consultancy WoodMackenzie.

Pierre Andurand, CEO of Andurand Capital, a hedge fund manager specializing in the oil market, believes that the peak in global demand for oil may occur between 2022 and 2026. For Andurand, the pandemic showed the fragile aspects of the global economy and pointed out that improving profitability is desired in the oil sector. The expert believes that, increasingly, oil companies will take into account taxation, for carbon emissions, in investment decisions. "The pandemic exposed weaknesses in the economic system. This should remind everyone that climate change will be much worse than what we are experiencing today, as there will be no vaccine," warned Andurand.

With an eye on new market dynamics, Shell has shown an interest in expanding the share of renewable energy in its portfolio. The head of Shell Energy Europe's energy department, Rupen Tanna, said at the event that there is room for hydrogen, natural gas, offshore wind and photovoltaic energy in the company's portfolio, in addition to ongoing discussions about electric cars and batteries. "We see these businesses as keys to our path to achieving the goal of zero emissions," said Tanna. Shell aims to neutralize total carbon emissions by 2050.

Also present in the virtual discussion, the head of the oil and gas research division of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Stavroula Papageorgiou, explained that oil companies will play a crucial role in the energy transition. "These companies are well prepared and have access to capital, so there is room for them in the transition, otherwise, we will not be able to reach the goals (of reducing emissions)," he said.

In parallel, while seeking to increase exposure to alternative sources, companies see some of their traditional businesses at risk. Ben Luckock, Trafigura's co-chief of oil marketing, commented that, in the current crisis, refining has been one of the most affected, and has been working with tight margins. "There will be a rationalization in refining and we start to see that. In the future, for some [companies] to survive, others will have to die," he explained.

Experts also addressed a possible impact of the American election race, on barrel prices and on the oil sector as a whole. For them, elections in the United States are unlikely to have a strong impact on the market in the short term. A possible democratic victory and loosening of sanctions on Iran, for example, would have effects only in the medium term, analysts noted.

In turn, Hittle, vice president for research at consultancy WoodMackenzie, added that production from countries like Iran and Venezuela will still have room in the market until 2030. This is because the increase in US oil production will not be enough to compensate for falls in other regions, for now. "These countries need only be concerned [with falling demand] at the end of the next decade," he said.