One of the key factors pushing inflation in recent months also helps ease public accounts. The rise of oil in the international market and the appreciation of the dollar began to inflate government revenues amid a fall in the collection of some taxes.

In April, as reported by the Federal Revenue Office last Thursday (23), federal revenue grew 1.28% above inflation compared to the same month last year.

This growth, however, was fully supported by revenues not managed by the Treasury, which generated R $ 11.03 billion last month, against R $ 8.421 in April 2018.

Almost all of these resources not managed by the Treasury are composed of oil royalties. Without these extra revenues, the revenue would have fallen 0.34% in April compared to April last year, discounting official inflation by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA).

"Production has shown growth and the price of a barrel of oil and the exchange rate have favored the increase of the payment of the participations," said the head of the Center for Tax and Customs Studies of the Federal Revenue, Claudemir Malaquias, explaining the April collection.

Relief 

The price of a Brent oil barrel ended last Friday (24) at US $ 68.69, up 36.1% from December 26 last year, when it was at US $ 50.47 and reached the lowest level since August 2017.

The appreciation, which is reflected in higher fuel prices, has helped the government reduce the risk of failing to meet fiscal targets.

Disclosed on Wednesday (22), the Bimonthly Report on Revenues and Expenditures, document that guides the execution of the Budget, did not include the increase of the oil price in the official estimates of revenue.

The report, revised every two months, raised the average price of the barrel from $ 65.4 to $ 65.5. The estimated royalties in 2019 jumped from R $ 61.7 billion to R $ 65.3 billion, but the increase is due to the payment of a debt of R $ 3.6 billion from Petrobras to the Union.

"During this week, the price of the Brent barrel has reached US $ 71. If the price continues until the end of the year, we can revise the estimate of revenue upwards," said Special Finance Secretary Waldery Rodrigues.

Contingency 

To avoid a new contingency in May, the government used part of an emergency reserve, releasing resources to the Ministries of Education and the Environment.

The Treasury secretary also reminded that Petrobras' onerous assignment, which is not yet included in the report, should yield R $ 74.8 billion to the National Treasury, an amount that will later be shared with states.

He, however, recalled that the oil revenues are atypical and defended the approval of the pension reform to ensure compliance with the primary deficit fiscal goal of R $ 139 billion.

"Our estimates are pretty conservative. The onerous assignment [transaction between Petrobras and the Treasury due to the discovery of new barrels in the pre-salt layer] and structural reforms is not yet included. When the pension reform is approved, we will redo the projections, with better numbers, "explained Rodrigues in detailing the report.