The United States Research Institute specializing in the oil industry, Oil Change International (OIC), released this week a report on the effective commitment of the major American (Chevron and ExxonMobil) and European (bp, Equinor, Repson, Shell, Eni and Total) with climate change. The finding is that oil production, and therefore the emission of carbon into the atmosphere, tends to grow until 2030. Natural gas extraction, considered by experts to be the fuel of the transition, should fall.

The ICO report, based on projections by the consultancy Rystad Energy, analyzes whether actions for the oil and gas industry of these companies will effectively contribute to mitigating climate change.

"Almost all major oil and gas companies will contribute even more to the climate crisis by 2030. None has released a climate commitment or sustainability plan that meets the minimum criteria for alignment with the Paris Agreement. Governments will need to intervene to ensure a gradual elimination (of fossils) that reflects the urgency and ambition of the temperature limits (provided for in the agreement) ", states the document.

Instead of focusing on investments in the renewables segment, the study assesses whether future oil and natural gas exploration and production projects will contribute to reducing or not global warming.

What the ICO has shown is that the presence of oil in the portfolios of major oil companies is on the rise, with the exception of Italy's Eni, which forecasts a 2% drop. In other companies, the scenario is for significant expansion of more polluting sources, mainly in the sector giants ExxonMobil and Shell, which in the next decade should increase oil extraction by 52% and 22%, respectively.

The production of natural gas is expected to lose strength by 2030. According to the ICO report, only bp, ExxonMobil and Shell should increase their production in the period. In the group of multinationals, oil should gain space in relation to gas, considered strategic in the energy transition.

The ICO is also examining whether companies have ambitions to reduce their new oil exploration activities in the next ten years. According to the Institute's analysis, this already happens at bp, which in ten years will reduce the search for new reservoirs by 30%, and at Eni, which will follow the same trajectory in five years. The other oil companies do not foresee any action in this regard during this period.