The price of oil has rehearsed in recent weeks and has stabilized at around US $ 40 a barrel, after remaining below US $ 35 for almost the entire period between April and May. Brent's price rose 16.5% in June, in a movement that accompanies the gradual resumption of demand. Despite this, the recent appreciation is still not enough to erase the effects of the 65.5% drop accumulated in the first half, nor to dispel pessimism regarding the future behavior of the commodity. The expectation is that the balance sheets of the oil companies, in the second quarter, will be stained red, impacted by write-offs.

Yesterday, Shell estimated a fall of $ 15 billion to $ 22 billion (after taxes), amid a reduction in price projections for the medium and long term. The oil company follows the example of BP, which two weeks ago had already announced a cut in the book value of its assets of up to US $ 17.5 billion, due to the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. In May, Petrobras had already anticipated and recorded, still in the balance sheet of the first quarter, an "impairment" of US $ 13.4 billion, after reducing the average price of the barrel in the long term from US $ 65 to US $ 50 .

Wood Mackenzie estimates that the oil price shock and the effects of the pandemic have already dried up the global value of oil and gas exploration and production activities by $ 1.6 trillion. The consultancy believes that further accounting losses will come ahead. "The ´impairment´ that Shell announced is more than a technical accounting detail, or an adjustment in price assumptions in the short term. These are fundamental changes that affect the entire sector," wrote the vice president of corporate analysis consultancy, Luke Parker, in a report on the decision of the Anglo-Dutch oil company.

The outlook for the coming months is that global demand for oil will continue to rise, but that it will remain below pre-pandemic levels for a while. Rystad Energy points out that consumption of the commodity has been recovering gradually, month by month. The consultancy estimates that, after falling 27.1% in April, in comparison with the same period last year, demand fell again in May, but this time at a lower level, of 19.8%, leaving the bottom of the well . For June, the estimate was for a decrease of 14.2%.

The full market recovery, however, will still take some time. Rystad expects that 2020 will register an 11.8% drop in consumption compared to last year, and that the levels of crude oil consumption in 2021 will still remain below those of 2019.

A study by the Brazilian Institute of Oil, Gas and Biofuels (IBP) highlights that the impacts of covid-19 should be felt in the oil and gas sector by the end of 2021, following the downward trend in final consumption of primary energy. In the more moderate scenario, prices remain below US $ 45 a barrel and consumption starts to recover in the second half, although it will only reach 2019 levels next year. In that case, a cut in production would be necessary to minimize excess supply.

XP Investimentos oil and energy analyst Gabriel Francisco says that the appreciation of oil in June was influenced precisely by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend it for another month, until the end of July , the cut quota agreement in production - coupled, of course, with the beginning of the economic recovery in some countries that began to relax social isolation measures. He stressed, however, that it is still premature to estimate the market's behavior this year. This is because there is a fear that a second wave of contagion of the new coronavirus will occur in the world and that this may close countries again.

"One of the big consumers is commercial aviation. Aviation kerosene represents 5% to 10% of the world demand and the return of this activity depends on the resumption of travel. For this, the pandemic needs to be controlled, by vaccine or medicine," he said. .

In the assessment of Bain & Company, the current crisis in the sector should establish a new level of prices, lower, in relation to the pre-crisis levels. The consultancy points out that oil shocks caused by geopolitical issues (such as the 1991 Gulf War and the terrorist attack on the USA in 2001) or by economic recessions (such as the 1998 Asian crisis and the 2008 subprime crisis) often recover the previous price levels. Bain argues that the current shock, however, is more like the 1986 and 2015 crises, which caused structural changes in the oil industry.