The natural gas segment is undergoing a transformation phase in the face of the great potential of the pre-salt, the entry of new agents, the ongoing regulatory changes and the need for greater integration with the electric power sector. These were some of the issues debated on Monday (25) during the first day of the 18th IBP Seminar on Natural Gas.

"With the changes being introduced by Gás para Crescer, a program jointly developed by the government and representatives of all the links in the gas chain that submitted proposals, Brazil will take a step forward in this market, with new agents, more investments and more competition, in addition to the necessary integration with the electricity sector to absorb the greater gas supply of the pre-salt, "said Luiz Costamilan, Executive Secretary of Natural Gas of IBP, noting also that Gas for Growth, launched about a year ago in the edition past the IBP Natural Gas Seminar, enters its final phase, whose next step is to send the proposed changes to the Legislative.

The Energy Research Company's (EPE) estimate is that the supply of natural gas to the market will grow from 57 million cubic meters / day in 2016 to 95 million cubic meters / day in 2026, with the bulk coming from the pre-salt . According to Ricardo Bedregal, Head of Upstream Research and Consulting Practice for Latin America at IHS Markit, the Santos Basin will account for 70% of the future crude gas production and will contribute about 180 million cubic meters / day in production gas production by 2030. "Pre-salt production in the Santos Basin will be the main driver of oil growth in Brazil and, consequently, gas, since 90% of the future crude gas production (2017-2040) will be associated gas, "explained Bedregal.

Costamilan also pointed out that the scenario is positive for building a more dynamic, open and competitive sector thanks to the opportunities for investment in the sale of gas assets from Petrobras, growing pre-salt production - which will offset the expected lower imports from Bolivia - and changes in the regulatory framework, which will bring more stability and security to the segment.

"Three pillars are fundamental for the development of the gas market: improvement of the tax framework, integration of the electric and natural gas sectors, and new regulatory design, based on legislative changes that will be proposed," added Simone Araújo, Gas Director Natural of the Ministry of Mines and Energy.

The new rules, it says, provide free negotiated access with owners to the capacity of pipelines and terminals, tax reorganization, authorization regime for the construction and operation of pipelines (with the possibility that another interested agent also dispute the line) and the creation of the figure of gas-free consumers, as is the case in the electricity sector.

In the panel on Access to Infrastructure and Investment Attraction, Carlos Zanardo, Cosan's executive manager, recalled the low penetration of natural gas in the energy matrix. "It is less than 10% and without the increase of the share of natural gas in the energy matrix there will be no net market, the industry will not be competitive and will not have scale," he said.

For the executive, the entry of new players is also fundamental to strengthen the value chain of the segment. "In this moment of transition to an open and competitive market we need investment incentives, new players and more infrastructure, as well as multiple agents in supply and marketing. It's no use changing Petrobras for just three or four operators, we need to have multiple agents in the market to guarantee competitiveness, "concluded Zanardo.

Economic scenario and demand

During the event, the economist José Márcio Camargo, from PUC-Rio, outlined a positive outlook for the country's growth in the coming years, with reforms such as labor reforms and the creation of a public sector spending ceiling. investors and is already reflected in the reduction of interest paid on Brazilian debt securities.

Clarissa Lins, founding partner of Catavento and director of IBP, highlighted the importance of economic growth and industry performance for the natural gas market.

Leonardo Junqueira, president of Repsol-Sinopec Brasil, said that it is necessary to work to develop gas consumption by industry, which in Brazil is low and brings "stability" to the sector. The executive, like other speakers, also stressed the need, in the upcoming energy auctions, for the government to include gas thermoelectric plants to generate on a continuous basis to assure demand for gas and security of supply, with the increasing use of solar and wind - modalities that do not have constant generation.

"The gas market needs an anchor consumer to develop, which is thermal generation. The gas is clean and efficient, and it can compete with the cost of solar and wind power plants and even future hydroelectric plants. a source capable of generating power without interruption. "

For EPE, the pre-salt gas will be competitive against the imported from Bolivia and LNG, with prices in the range of US $ 5 to US $ 11 per million BTU (unit of gas measurement).

International Benchmark

Also on the first day of the Seminar on Natural Gas, international experts presented the models of operation in Portugal, Argentina and Norway, showing cases of success that could base the construction of the Brazilian model.

Jorge Manuel Rodrigues Lúcio, Galp's director of the Galp's Gas & Power Regulation, explained that in Europe the market is developed by country. That is, there is national independence in the chain of production, supply, infrastructure and commercialization. Daniel Ridelener, general director of Gas Transporter del Norte S.A (TGN), questioned the possibility of a joint regulation for Latin America, as in the European single market model.

"We need to think about energy without borders. If we forget the lines that delimit the countries, we would have a very different energy scenario than we have today, "Ridelener said.

The 18th edition of the Seminar on Natural Gas continued this Tuesday, 9/26, with the secretary of the presence of oil and gas MME, Márcio Félix, to comment on the main results achieved by the program to revise the regulations of the gas sector for the entry of new agents. In addition, topics such as the new transportation model, the tax regime for a new market and the prospects for the distribution of natural gas in Brazil will be discussed.

The event is sponsored by Petrobras, the Federal Government, Faveret Lampert, Mattos Filho Veiga FilhoMarrey Jr and Quiroga Advogados, Repsol-Sinopec, Statoil, Shell and TBG, and has institutional support from Brazil-U.S Business Council.