A study carried out by the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan), “Rio of the Future: Economic Vocations and Potential of Rio de Janeiro,” identified nine new development frontiers capable of transforming the state’s industrial landscape in the coming years. In the baseline scenario, the state’s industrial GDP would grow by R$ 279 billion over 10 years. With strategic stimulation of these vocations, this growth could reach R$ 489 billion over the same period — an increase of R$ 210 billion, more than doubling the expansion potential of Rio’s industrial sector. The study was delivered to the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes, and the State Secretary of the Civil House, Nicola Miccione, at an event held this Wednesday, December 10, at Firjan’s headquarters, which gathered more than 300 business leaders.

There is also a projected creation of 676,000 additional jobs—equivalent to the entire formal labor market of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul—alongside an increase in Rio’s share of Brazil’s industrial GDP from 17% to 23%.

The study was based on the analysis of national economic indicators, such as those from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), and the Central Bank of Brazil, among others, as well as input from 200 specialists, business leaders and public managers familiar with the state. This effort resulted in the mapping of 125 industrial activities in Rio de Janeiro.

Rio of the Future: Challenges

“Stimulating these new frontiers is essential. We cannot miss the opportunity to establish a true milestone in the economic and social development of the State of Rio. It is important for public officials to understand the full potential highlighted by the study,” said Firjan President Luiz Césio Caetano.

According to Mayor Eduardo Paes, the study Rio of the Future: Economic Vocations and Potential of Rio de Janeiro shows that the state’s industry has a clear direction for growth. “Compass — that is the name of this Firjan document. It’s good that Rio’s industry knows where it wants to go. This is a document capable of guiding government action,” Paes emphasized.

Nicola Miccione, State Secretary of the Civil House, added that public managers must understand where the industry is heading. “Firjan, once again, demonstrates a firm commitment to supporting Rio de Janeiro’s economic development,” he said.

The study also divides these economic vocations into two major groups:

• Structural sectors (Oil & Gas, Infrastructure, Metalworking and Construction) — with potential to generate 438,000 jobs.
• Consumer sectors (Food & Beverages, Audiovisual and ICT, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products, Fashion, Textiles and Apparel, and Paper & Printing) — which could generate 238,000 jobs.

Another key point highlighted in the study is the need to address major structural challenges. One of them is public security. A recent survey conducted by Firjan showed that two out of every three industrial companies in Rio report that their investment decisions are negatively affected by insecurity.

The study also underscores the importance of ensuring a more stable and predictable energy supply. In 2024, energy losses generated losses of R$ 1.7 billion — enough to supply electricity to all households in the state for five months.

Interview participants also pointed out that the fragmented road network, poor integration between ports, and lack of intermodality create barriers to competitiveness. They advocate for the development of an integrated logistics infrastructure — with airports, ports, railways and highways operating in coordination.

Finally, they emphasize that regulatory stability and predictability, combined with competitive tax conditions, are essential for enabling long-term investments in Rio de Janeiro.

Firjan announced that, starting in February, it will begin a schedule of initiatives based on the study, including presenting the results to industrial companies across the state and to candidates in the 2026 elections.

Access the full study on the Firjan Observatory platform:
https://observatorio.firjan.com.br/prospectiva-e-tendencias/potencialidades

The Nine Additional Development Frontiers Identified by Firjan Are:

• Energy transition, low-carbon economy and circular economy:
Generation and transmission of clean energy to attract energy-intensive industries; creation of a robust materials recovery market and efficient waste-management systems.

• Tourism, culture and the creative economy:
Transform the “Rio Brand” into desirable products; strengthen the fashion industry and the audiovisual hub as drivers of cultural exports; consolidate the region’s gastronomic identity.

• Port-logistics complex and productive corridors:
Modernize port, road and airport infrastructure. A key priority within the port-logistics complex is enabling the EF-118 railway, linking the Port of Açu (RJ), the Port of Vitória (ES), and the Port of Sepetiba (RJ) to the national rail network. The railway would create a logistics corridor facilitating the flow of grains, minerals, and other goods from the Midwest and Minas Gerais.

• Health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical complex:
Position Rio as a national health hub, attracting the manufacturing of high-cost strategic medicines and pharmaceuticals.

• Ocean economy (shipbuilding, nautical tourism and marine bioeconomy):
Stimulate shipyards and innovation in naval and subsea systems (PROSUB); expand the luxury boating market; develop the construction of recreational vessels for world-class tourism; and lead the sustainable decommissioning sector by adapting ship maintenance and repair capabilities for offshore platform reverse engineering.

• Aerospace and MRO (maintenance, repair and operations) complex:
Transform Rio into Latin America’s MRO center and consolidate aircraft maintenance capabilities.

• Advanced chemical and petrochemical industry:
Expand production of basic petrochemicals essential to supply the manufacturing sector.

• Innovation, technology, AI and data-center hub:
Build Industry 4.0 infrastructure, attract investment in data processing and the digital economy; foster software companies focused on industrial solutions.

• Agribusiness and territorial bioeconomy:
Position Rio as a relevant player in Brazilian agribusiness; use natural gas to boost fertilizer production and reduce import dependency; and capture the premium consumer market (coffee, dairy, bakery), organic products and high-value-added specialty foods.