The Brazilian Institute of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (IBP) released on July 21 two technical studies detailing the fiscal behavior and the crude oil export scenario in Brazil for the first half of 2026. The data show that the sector's sharing model already efficiently captures international market price upswings, making the recent decision by Camex's Executive Management Committee (Gecex) to maintain the 12% Export Tax through administrative means both redundant and harmful to the country's competitiveness.

According to the revenue study, Brazil distributed R$ 36.5 billion in royalties in the first half of 2026. The amount was 35% above expectations at the start of the year due to escalating global geopolitical tensions, which pushed the average Brent barrel price to US$ 92.56, surpassing the initial projection of US$ 57.50 made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

This appreciation generated an extraordinary additional R$ 9.6 billion for public coffers. From this extra revenue gain obtained through the existing concession and sharing regime, the federal government received R$ 3 billion, states received R$ 2.7 billion, and municipalities received R$ 3.9 billion.

"Changing the administrative instrument to maintain the tax does not fix its underlying problems nor eliminate legal uncertainty," says Roberto Ardenghy (pictured), president of IBP. "The country's public revenue from oil already grows naturally when international prices rise or when production advances. Creating a new layer of taxation on external sales merely overlaps charges, deteriorates the business environment, and drives away long-term investments."

Decline in exports

The immediate impact of taxation on external sales was mapped in the IBP's second study. In May, the month the Export Tax was effectively applied, Brazil's crude oil shipment volume fell 28.3% compared to April, dropping from 62.8 million to 45 million barrels, accompanied by a 23.3% reduction in revenue.

The technical analysis indicates that the situational decline resulted from oil companies needing to manage inventories, redesign logistical and financial planning, and reorganize themselves in the face of the new tax reality. Although June saw a 46% recovery (65.7 million barrels), the May downturn confirms the risk of loss of dynamism and competitiveness for Brazilian product relative to other global production frontiers.

"The oil and gas industry accounts for 17% of Brazil's industrial GDP and generates capital-intensive investments with multi-decade horizons," Ardenghy emphasizes. "Short-sighted fiscal revenue measures reduce project profitability and increase regulatory uncertainty. In the long run, this loss of competitiveness means less production, less attraction of foreign capital, and consequently lower future public revenue."