With a cut of more than U$ 20 billion in investments scheduled in relation to the previous plan (dropped from US $ 75.4 billion to US $ 55 billion) and expansion of the divestment portfolio, Petrobras wants to ensure the remuneration of its shareholders from U$ 25 to 35 billion in this period, in line with the transformational agenda announced in 2019, supported by five pillars: maximizing the return on capital employed, reducing the cost of capital, relentless pursuit of low costs, meritocracy and respect for people and the environment and focus security of operations.

The Strategic Plan 2021-2025 announced by Petrobras on the last day of November, on the eve of the first digital Rio Oil & Gas, was impacted by the devaluation of the real, the reduction and optimization of exploratory investments, the avoided investments with the sale of assets and the review of the project portfolio. It also reflects the world pandemic year of Covid-19, which by the beginning of December had already accounted for more than 66 million cases and 1.5 million deaths (of which almost 12% in Brazil).

The increase in the divestment portfolio, which implies an increase of US $ 5 billion, is the result of a projection that did not materialize, since the oil company confirmed the receipt in the first three quarters of 2020 of only US $ 1 billion with the sale of assets - not something equivalent to the US $ 5 to 6 billion previously estimated (annual average of the previous plan).

The cut in investments reflects the insertion of new assets (which, therefore, should not receive any more contribution for upgrade, only for maintenance) as well as the failure to materialize the company's goal of reaching the end of 2020 with a gross debt of US $ 74.4 billion - it was R$ 80 billion at the end of the third quarter of the year. In order to reach US$ 60 billion of gross debt (projected in PE 2020-2024 and maintained in the current one), Petrobras is betting on reducing investments and increasing the sale of assets in the portfolio strengthened with Marlim.

HISTORICAL REDUCTION IN E&P

The cut of up to US $ 24 billion in investments planned for the exploration and production (E&P) area between 2021 and 2025 is one of the most significant in the last two decades. In the previous plan, Petrobras predicted that of the US $ 75.7 billion it would invest by 2024, about US$ 64 billion would be allocated to E&P. Of this total, 59% in the pre-salt and 29% in deep-water projects in the post-salt, mainly in the Campos basin, in assets such as the Marlim complex (Marlim, Marlim Sul and Leste), the only one for which they were planned new production units at the beginning of the SP 2020-2024.

The crisis caused by the covid-19 and the goal of better remunerating its shareholders led the company to "actively and deeply manage our portfolio", as pointed out by Petrobras Exploration and Production Director, Carlos Alberto Pereira de Oliveira, during a presentation of the 2021-2025 Strategic Plan to analysts, in the Brazilian version of Petrobras Day, on the morning of November 30.

The objective, according to the company's president, Roberto Castello Branco, is to maximize value, prioritizing investments in world-class assets, mainly in the pre-salt, and in divestment. Thus, investments in E&P fell to US $ 46.5 billion (almost US $ 18 billion less than previously forecast and equivalent to the total forecast for this frontier in the previous plan), leaving the pre-salt with US$ 32 billion (70 % of total E&P in the current plan). About US $ 11.7 billion cut in the current plan refers to portfolio review (project optimizations, postponements and cancellations) and US $ 6.7 billion to exploratory activities.

CAMPOS BASIN

Thus, the Campos basin, in which the state-owned company planned to invest around US $ 20 billion, through PE 2020-2024, in revitalization projects and complementary actions, had almost a third of the investments cut, and should receive US$ 13 billion in resources until the middle of this decade.

Oliveira ensures that the impact of the divestment on production will be 300 thousand barrels/ day. What would not impact the company's production goals as much, since the prediction is that the pre-salt accounts for up to 80% of the national production (rate that today is 70%), with “a lower cost production and low emission greenhouse gas (GHG)”. A further US$ 2 billion is foreseen in investments in production in ultra-deep waters in the SEAL basin and another US$ 1 billion in the exploration of new fronts in the Brazilian equatorial tide, in which the state company has assets in Foz do Amazonas.

FALLS SHORT ON THE PRODUCTION GOAL

Petrobras' Production Development Director, Rudimar Lorenzatto, PE 2021-2025 pointed out that in the next five years the company will put into operation 13 new production systems in six fields - Mero (4), Búzios (4), Sépia (1), Itapu ( 1), Parque das Baleias (1), all in the pre-salt, and Marlim (2), in the postsalt.

What has not been clear so far is the scope of the divestment in Marlim and how it may impact the units under construction (FPSO Garibaldi and FPSO Anna Néri) in this count.

Petrobras' main bet is the Búzios field, in the pre-salt of the Santos basin, the largest in the country and which should exceed 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) at the peak. Today producing through four Petrobras own FPSOs (P-74, P-75, P-76 and P-77), it will win another four units. Modec won the bid for the construction, operation and chartering of the FPSO Búzios 5, with a capacity of up to 150 thousand barrels / day of oil and 6 million m³ / day of gas, which should start production in 2022.

Of the 3 others planned, two will be own FPSOs P-78 and P-79, already in bidding) and a third will be chartered: the FPSO Almirante Tamandaré, with capacity to produce 225 thousand barrels of oil and 12 million m3 of gas , which should start operating in the second half of 2024, will be the largest in operation in the country.

Although the board affirms that the shutdowns scheduled for this year, suspended due to the covid-19 pandemic, will not impact production, as maintenance would be being carried out in the second half, the production curve has changed in the new strategic planning. And it was revised downwards in this strategic planning, which it estimates reached 3.3 million boe / day in 2025 (against 3.5 million boe / day in 2024, in the previous plan.

The planned investments in decommissioning also fell in this SP being US $ 1.4 billion below the previous one, even though they continue to be 18 units, of which only one platform is not included now (P-12), since it started in July of that year. The P-47 in Marlim entered the list.

DIVESTMENTS TO REDUCE DEBT AND INVEST IN WORLD-CLASS ASSETS

Refining investments total US$ 3.7 billion (against US $ 6 billion in the previous plan). Petrobras intends to sell assets that add up to around 50% of the company's refining capacity, for this reason investments in the refining and natural gas area. The stateowned company intends to reach 2025 with five refineries - four in the state of São Paulo (Replan, Revap, Recap and RPBC) and one in Rio de Janeiro (Reduc), with a total refining capacity of 1.15 million barrels / day against the current 2.2 million barrels/day. It will dispose of eight assets: Refap (RS), Rnest (PE), Repar and Six (PR), Rlam (BA), Lubnor (CE), Reman (AM) and Regap (MG).

The Director of Refining and Natural Gas at Petrobras, Anelise Lara, stated that one of the strategic plans for gas and energy is to add more value in the commercialization of energy and in the optimization of the company's thermoelectric portfolio, with a focus on generating value of the gas produced.

Therefore, US$ 1.1 billion will be invested in this area, with emphasis on the completion of the construction of the Gas Treatment Unit (UTG) of the GasLub Itaboraí Complex (formerly called Comperj).

UTG will receive the gas drained by route 3, another priority project for the company, expanding the integrated capacity of the pre-salt routes to 44 million cubic meters per day. "The objective is to provide greater security for oil production in the pre-salt fields," said the executive.

She pointed out that resources are being invested in improving gas turbines to increase power and operational efficiency. "We have the strategy of seeking segregation of value in the sale of gas, with the aim of reaching 2025 with the significant expansion of our capacity through the expansion of the Guanabara Bay terminal", concluded Anelise Lara.