Brazilian exports are expected to reach US $ 237.334 billion next year, with an increase of 13.7% in relation to the US $ 208.791 billion estimated for this year of 2020. Imports could reach US $ 168.316 billion, with growth of 7.3 % compared to the US $ 156.916 billion expected for this year. Estimated at US $ 69.018 billion, the surplus for 2021 will show an increase of 33% in comparison with the US $ 51.875 billion forecast for 2020, which may represent a historic record if the projections are realized. The largest surplus so far recorded in the country, was US $ 67 billion, in 2017.

The forecasts were released today (16) by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB).

In an interview with Agência Brasil, the executive chairman of AEB, José Augusto de Castro, said that three factors contribute to these projections: the sharp increase in the price of soybeans, the sharp increase in the price of ore and the recovery in oil prices.

Quotations 

The three products (soybeans, iron ore and oil) lead the Brazilian exports of commodities (agricultural products and minerals traded in the international market) and had an average price increase in dollars per ton of 25%, 42% and 12%, respectively, between the quotations made in 2020 and those projected for 2021.

According to the AEB, soybeans, oil and ore will account for the record 40.2% of the country's total exports projected for 2021, remaining as a driver for sustaining Brazilian sales abroad. In 2021, for the seventh consecutive year, soybeans will continue to be the leading export product, with US $ 36.550 billion, a new record, bet AEB.

China will continue to be the largest buyer of Brazilian soy and iron ore. José Augusto de Castro said he did not believe that the Brazilian government's criticisms of China could affect bilateral trade relations. "Being able to [affect] can, but not at this moment," he said.

GDP 

According to Castro, the behavior of imports will be strongly influenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced in the country). The AEB estimates between 2.5% and 4% the growth of the Brazilian GDP in 2020, which may mitigate the level of unemployment, increase the consumption of families and the government, increase domestic demand and accelerate imports.

Castro also said that it is necessary to observe how the emergency aid granted to informal workers during the pandemic of the new coronavirus will influence the country's growth, but admitted that imports may be discouraged, if there is no domestic demand.

In a document, the AEB also points out that the pace of vaccination against covid-19 will be another important factor in achieving the upward picture of the Brazilian trade balance. Some factors, however, will remain to be defined, including the possibility of delayed vaccination, the inauguration of the new president of the United States and the announcement of his guidelines; the trade war between the United States and China, the behavior of commodities in the "new normal" and their impacts on Brazil's trade balance.

The executive chairman of AEB pointed out that Brazil remains highly dependent on commodity exports, to the detriment of manufactured products, with greater added value, which suffer the negative impact of the lack of competitiveness due to the high cost of Brazil.