Geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rate variations have returned to the center of attention in the international market in 2026. Although many of these events occur thousands of kilometers away from Brazil, their effects quickly reach Brazilian companies that depend on fuel to maintain their operations.

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East throughout the first half of 2026 increased volatility in the international oil market. In March, as conflicts involving Iran intensified along with risks to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor through which about one-fifth of the world's traded oil passes — the Brent barrel briefly surpassed the US$100 mark. In June, following signs of reduced tensions and the gradual reopening of maritime routes, the commodity fell back to the range between US$72 and US$80, highlighting the market's strong sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

Beyond the international oil price, another factor that directly influences fuel costs in Brazil is the dollar. Since a significant portion of global energy sector negotiations is conducted in the U.S. currency, any appreciation of the exchange rate tends to pressure prices, impacting the entire logistics chain.

For Carlos Eduardo Silva, director of Excel, a leading company in fuel management and fleet management, this scenario demands a much more strategic rather than reactive posture from companies. "Today, fueling a fleet is no longer just a fuel purchasing operation. Management needs to monitor daily external factors that are completely beyond companies' control, such as wars, dollar fluctuations and international oil market movements. Those who only look at the price at the pump lose their planning capacity," he comments.

According to the executive, international volatility makes it even more important to invest in data intelligence to control consumption and reduce waste. "When the external scenario becomes more unstable, what sets a company apart is its operational efficiency. Monitoring refueling in real time, identifying deviations, negotiating better with the accredited network and optimizing routes help offset part of the increases coming from the international market," Carlos explains.

Although Brazil is a major oil producer, the country remains subject to global market fluctuations, both due to the international dynamics of refined products and the costs of importing part of the fuels and inputs used in supply. This means that sharp movements in the Brent price or the exchange rate are closely monitored by distributors, resellers and companies operating large fleets.

In practice, sectors such as road transport, agribusiness, construction, mining and logistics are among the most sensitive to this scenario. Small variations in diesel costs can represent millions of reais in additional expenses over the course of a year for companies with hundreds or thousands of vehicles.

For Carlos Eduardo Silva, the current context reinforces a shift in mindset in fleet management. "Companies cannot control a war or the dollar exchange rate, but they can control their internal processes. The greater the predictability of operations and the use of technology in fuel management, the lower the exposure to impacts caused by international fluctuations," he says.

In an environment marked by geopolitical and financial uncertainties, experts assess that intelligent fuel consumption management is no longer just a cost reduction tool and has become part of organizations' risk management strategy. After all, while wars, exchange rates and oil will continue to influence global markets, operational efficiency remains one of the few factors effectively under companies' control.

About Excel – Excel is a Brazilian company recognized for its innovative solutions and advanced quality since 1990. A pioneer in developing the first digital tire calibrator, it has become a leader in fuel supply control, fleet management, fuel tank measurement and environmental monitoring. With over 120 direct employees, Excel promotes diversity and inclusion, seeking to inspire and develop talent in a respectful and joyful work environment.