Economy

Brazil Economy Slows in First Quarter

Brazil's economy ground to a near halt in the first quarter, burdened by turmoil in some of its main trading partners and an exhausted consumer class at home.

The Wall Street Journal
30/05/2014 18:45
Visualizações: 1001 (0) (0) (0) (0)

Brazil's economy ground to a near halt in the first quarter, burdened by turmoil in some of its main trading partners and an exhausted consumer class at home.

 

Gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in the January to March period from the previous quarter, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, said Friday. Compared with a year earlier, first-quarter growth amounted to 1.9%.

 

The results were in line with expectations. But they reaffirmed the prevailing view among economists that the world's No. 2 emerging market is on track to log yet another year of unimpressive growth.

 

"This year is already a loss for Brazil," said Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody's Analytics. "There haven't been any structural changes. The government seems to be more interested in elections, and the private sector is still waiting to see what will happen."

 

Brazil's GDP growth hasn't cracked 3% since 2010, when it surged 7.5% in a recovery from the global recession. Analysts surveyed by the central bank expect economic output to expand a meager 1.6% in 2014 and 1.9% next year.

 

"This confirms that the key impediments to growth in Brazil are structural and domestic rather than cyclical or external," said Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos.

 

A sputtering economy and high inflation have fueled widespread unrest in the South American nation since last year's protests drew millions to the streets. In recent weeks, a wave of strikes by bus drivers, police officers and other public employees has crippled major cities such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro for entire days as workers demanded bigger pay raises.

 

That means the odds are stacked against a pickup in growth later in the year, said James Lockhart Smith, a Latin America analyst at risk consultancy Maplecroft, who thinks the World Cup will bring another series of protests.

 

"Work just isn't going to get done in the next few months," Mr. Lockhart Smith said. "There are a lot of disruptions."

 

Finance Minister Guido Mantega warned at a news conference that the World Cup, which starts June 12, could cut into the flagging industrial sector by reducing the number of working days. However, the tournament "will benefit commerce and services, since you'll have more consumption and tourists."

 

Brazil suffered in the first quarter as slowing economic growth in China, its top trading partner, weighed on prices for commodities such as iron ore and soybeans. Economic turmoil and a currency devaluation in neighboring Argentina—Brazil's third-biggest trading partner and one of the few countries that will buy its overpriced manufactured goods—hit the local auto sector.

 

Mr. Mantega blamed weakness abroad, particularly in the U.S., and accelerating inflation at home for the sluggish growth.

 

"The world's biggest economy, the U.S., contracted. That hurts us because it means the U.S. imported less," Mr. Mantega said. "Beyond that, we had an increase in inflation at the beginning of the year. That hurts family consumption."

 

Mr. Mantega expressed optimism about the second quarter, though, starting with consumer and business confidence.

 

"We have inflation falling, which returns purchasing power to consumers, and the volatility in international capital markets is diminishing," he said.

 

Economists at BBVA said Brazil faces an additional headwind caused by a severe drought that has dried up the country's hydroelectric reservoirs. Uncertainty created by the specter of electricity rationing was among the reasons for which the bank recently slashed its growth forecast for 2014 by 0.5 percentage point.

 

At the very least, analysts said the drought means the economy's lone bright spot in early 2014—a 3.6% quarterly increase in agricultural output—likely will prove short-lived. If not for that boost, growth would have been roughly flat, as industrial production declined 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and services expanded an anemic 0.4%, the IBGE said.

 

Separately, the Central Bank of Brazil reported Friday that the country's government, including central and regional levels, reported a 12-month primary surplus of 92.8 billion Brazilian reais in April, or 1.87% of gross domestic product. The result is higher than in March, when the primary surplus—or the government savings to pay down its debt—was 86.2 billion reais, or 1.75% of GDP.

 

For the month of April, the consolidated primary fiscal surplus was 16.9 billion reais, up from 3.6 billion reais in March.

 

Fundamentally, Brazil's economy remains hamstrung by an imbalance between consumption and investment, economists say. The wealth that flooded the country during the past decade's commodity boom was used to create a new middle class of consumers rather than to upgrade the country's roads, ports, factories and machinery.

 

That has left Brazil's economy short on hardware and unable to sustain faster growth rates. Despite recent government efforts to draw private investors into the country's infrastructure sector, gross investment in the January to March period contracted 2.1%, its third straight quarter of decline.

 

Families also have been tightening their belts in recent quarters as the bills piled up and high inflation forced the central bank to raise its baseline interest rate from 7.25% in April 2013 to 11% currently.

 

A "alarming" reflection of that trend came in the form of a 0.1% first-quarter decline in private consumption, said Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at London-based research firm Capital Economics. It was only the third time in the past eight years that families have consumed less from one quarter to the next.

 

"The consumer engine is slowing and nothing else is really picking up the slack, which means the economy is going to struggle," Mr. Shearing said. "That's going to pressure the government to potentially loosen the purse strings later in the year."

 

Reinaldo Annicchino, owner of Cachaça do Rei, a maker of Brazil's national sugar-cane liquor, said he's feeling the pinch as distributors delay purchases.

 

"They don't want to have too much inventory," Mr. Annicchino said. "Consumers are holding back, so distributors buy less and I feel it, too."

Most Read Today
see see
Offshore Operations
Crew training and connectivity are the true enablers of ...
23/12/25
Recognition
IBP Wins the “Events Oscar” Once Again with ROG.e 2024
11/12/25
FIRJAN
Rio Could Generate 676,000 New Jobs by Stimulating Nine ...
11/12/25
Inland Navigation
Grease-Free Revolution in Latin America’s Workboat Sector
10/12/25
PPSA
Production-Sharing Contracts to Produce 2 Million Barrel...
10/12/25
Recognition
National Public Transparency Program Grants Transpetro I...
10/12/25
Logistics
Transpetro expands its logistics operations with the int...
09/12/25
Auction
PPSA raises around R$ 8.8 billion from the sale of the F...
08/12/25
PPSA
Petrobras announces results of PPSA’s Non-Contracted Are...
08/12/25
Niterói
Niterói concludes second edition of Tomorrow Blue Econom...
02/12/25
Recognition
ABS Consulting Earns Third Elev8 GovCon Honor for Excell...
22/11/25
Award
Aed Energy Wins at the 2025 Energy Storage Awards
22/11/25
Mossoró Oil & Gas Energy 2025
PetroSupply Meeting to Boost Business at Mossoró Oil & G...
21/11/25
Results
Union’s Oil Production Reached 174 Thousand Barrels per ...
21/11/25
International Company News
TGS Extends Agreement with the Government of the Federal...
21/11/25
Company News
Belga Marine and Global Maritime Announce Strategic Part...
21/11/25
Niterói
Tomorrow Blue Economy sets Niterói in motion in the coun...
13/11/25
Cop30
ANP Participates in the Event and Advances Measures for ...
13/11/25
FIRJAN
Enaex 2025 Discusses Reindustrialization, Brazil’s Compe...
13/11/25
Mossoró Oil & Gas Energy 2025
Mossoró Oil & Gas Energy to Feature Strategic Debates in...
13/11/25
Company News
Norsul becomes the first company in Latin America to ado...
11/11/25
VEJA MAIS
Newsletter TN

Contact us

We use cookies to ensure you have the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site, we will assume that you agree with our Privacy Policy, terms of use and cookies.