Economy
Brazil’s broadest measure of prices fell more than economists forecast in June as the cost of fresh food dropped.
BloombergBrazil’s broadest measure of prices fell more than economists forecast in June as the cost of fresh food dropped.
Wholesale, consumer and construction prices, as measured by the IGP-M index, fell 0.74 percent this month, the Getulio Vargas Foundation, an education and research institution based in Rio de Janeiro, said on its website today. That was the biggest drop since March 2009 and a greater fall than estimated by all 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, whose median forecast was for a 0.6 percent decline. The index, which is weighted 60 percent in wholesale prices, rose 6.24 percent in the past 12 months.
Policy makers, struggling to contain consumer prices without damping growth, this week extended a currency intervention program to support the real and stem import costs. They signaled in a report yesterday they would keep interest rates unchanged even as they forecast inflation will persist above target for at least two more years.
“We continue to see wholesale agriculture prices dropping sharply, so this should help food inflation to ease going forward,” Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at Banco Mizuho do Brasil, said by phone from Sao Paulo. “It’s good news, because inflation is close to the upper limit of the Brazilian central bank’s tolerance band.”
Producer prices fell 1.44 percent in the month as fresh food prices plunged 12.73 percent, the FGV said on its website. Producer prices last month dropped 0.65 percent. Consumer prices as measured by the index rose 0.34 percent in June, down from 0.68 percent the prior month, as food price increases slowed to 0.03 percent from 0.81 percent.
Five Straight
Annual inflation as measured by the national statistics institute’s IPCA-15 index has accelerated for five straight months, reaching a 12-month high of 6.41 percent in mid-June. Policy makers target 4.5 percent inflation, plus or minus two percentage points.
The central bank kept the benchmark Selic unchanged at 11 percent last month following nine straight increases. The institution said June 25 it would extend through year-end its program of daily currency swap auctions that has helped make the real the best performer this year among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The central bank projected in a quarterly report published yesterday that consumer prices would rise 6.4 percent this year if policy makers keep the benchmark Selic at 11 percent. That compares with their estimate of 6.1 percent in March.
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