Economy

Brazil's Central Bank Expects Growth to Be 'Less Intense' This Year

Brazil's central bank on Thursday turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the Brazilian economy, softening its expectations for growth this year and suggesting a shift away from consumption as the main driver of growth is likely to take longer than expected.

The Wall Street Journal
05/06/2014 14:49
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Brazil's central bank on Thursday turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the Brazilian economy, softening its expectations for growth this year and suggesting a shift away from consumption as the main driver of growth is likely to take longer than expected.

 

The "pace of expansion for domestic activity will tend to be less intense this year, compared with 2013," the central bank's monetary policy committee said in minutes published on Thursday of its meeting held on May 27 and 28.

 

The central bank halted a year-long cycle of interest rate increases at that meeting, leaving the benchmark Selic rate on hold at 11%. Analysts are likely to interpret the concern expressed in the minutes as a signal that rates would remain on hold for some time.

 

The central bank said the full impact of the rate increases haven't yet been felt and that, given more modest levels of confidence in Brazil, their impact will be felt harder.

 

Brazil's economy ground to a near halt in the first quarter, when gross domestic product expanded 0.2% from the previous quarter.

 

The GDP growth hasn't cracked 3% since 2010, when it grew 7.5%. Analysts surveyed by the central bank expect economic output to expand 1.6% in 2014 and 1.9% next year. In 2013, the economy grew 2.5%.

 

Changes in the language of the statement indicated that the central bank believes a much-needed shift away from a reliance on consumption as the main driver of economic growth toward more output from industry and greater investments will now take longer than it had expected.

 

"On the supply side, the committee considers that, over a longer period, more favorable perspectives for the competitiveness of industry are emerging," the central bank said.

 

In contrast to its view of the local economy, the monetary authority said that, despite recent setbacks, it still expects the global economy to pick up pace this year.

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