The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) increased 3.9% between May and June 2014, when it moved from 90.7 to 87.2 points. After the sixth consecutive decline, the index moved away from the historical average of 105.4 points, and has reached its lowest level since May 2009.

The decrease of the index in June was mainly due to the deterioration of the expectations for the following months: the Expectations Index (EI) decreased 5.4%, to 84.4 points. The Present Situation Index (ISA) retreated 2.4% and reached 90.1 points. According to the institute, the additional decrease in confidence and the substantial decrease in the level of capacity utilization in the month signal a deepening of the deterioration scenario of the business environment that had been observed during the second quarter. The persistent worsening of expectations, in turn, shows that industrial businesspeople do not see signs of improvement in the short term yet.

The review of the current level of demand had the greatest influence on the decrease of the ISA. The indicator of this indicator decreased 3.2% in June, to 84.5 points, the lowest since April 2009 (80.5). The proportion of companies evaluating the level of demand as strong remained virtually stable, when it moved from 8.3% to 8.5%, while the share of companies that consider it weak jumped from 21.0% to 24.0%.

For the fifth consecutive month, the production forecast was the indicator that most contributed to the decrease of the IE. The indicator decreased 5.8% in June, to 100.9 points, the lowest since February 2009. The proportion of companies that expects an increase in production in the next three months increased from 22.4% to 23.6%; but the share of companies that expects a reduction in production increased by a greater amount, from 15.3% to 22.7%.

The Level of Installed Capacity Utilization (NUCI) decreased from 84.3% to 83.5% between May and June, and reached the lowest level since November 2011 (83.3%). According to IBRE, a 0.8 percentage points (pp) decrease in the margin was the largest since January 2009 (-1.6 pp) and seems to reflect the combination of weak demand and occasional holidays related to the World Cup.