In the second half of December, the sugarcane processing units in the South-Central region processed 1.73 million tons, compared to 4.92 million tons in the 2023/2024 harvest, representing a 64.86% decrease. For the 2024/2025 harvest, as of January 1, milling reached 613.6 million tons, compared to 644.2 million tons in the same period of the previous cycle, a 4.75% decrease.

In the second half of December, 59 production units were in operation, with 43 units processing sugarcane, 10 producing ethanol from corn, and six flex plants. In the same period during the 2023/2024 harvest, 103 production units were operating. By the end of the period, 38 units had finished milling, while the total count reached 244 units. In the previous cycle, by January 1, 244 plants had completed their processing period.

Regarding the quality of raw materials, the level of Total Recoverable Sugars (ATR) recorded in the second half of December was 121.58 kg of ATR per ton of sugarcane, compared to 136.46 kg per ton in the 2023/2024 harvest—a negative variation of 10.9%. In the accumulated data for the harvest, the indicator stands at 141.28 kg of ATR per ton, slightly higher (1.21%) than the same period in the previous cycle.

Sugar and Ethanol Production

Sugar production in the second half of December totaled only 63.52 thousand tons, showing a 73.12% decrease compared to the same period in the 2023/2024 harvest (236.33 thousand tons). In the accumulated data for the harvest, sugar production reached 39.78 million tons, compared to 42.06 million tons in the previous cycle, a decrease of 5.42%.

In the second half of December, ethanol production by the South-Central units reached 485.66 million liters, with 301.83 million liters of hydrated ethanol (-15.25%) and 183.83 million liters of anhydrous ethanol (+6.69%). In the accumulated data for the current agricultural cycle, ethanol production totaled 32.42 billion liters (+3.07%), with 20.64 billion liters of hydrated ethanol (+9.8%) and 11.78 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (-6.93%).

Of the total ethanol produced in the second half of December, 82.79% was made from corn, totaling 402.08 million liters this year, compared to 279.39 million liters in the same period of the 2023/2024 cycle—a 43.92% increase. In the accumulated data since the beginning of the harvest, corn ethanol production reached 6.03 billion liters, an increase of 30.86% compared to the same period last year.

Ethanol Sales

In December, ethanol sales totaled 2.95 billion liters, a positive variation of 2.55% compared to the same period in the 2023/2024 harvest.

In the domestic market, the volume of hydrated ethanol sold by the South-Central units totaled 1.78 billion liters, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the same period in the previous harvest. The sale of anhydrous ethanol, on the other hand, reached 1.04 billion liters, an increase of 15.54%.

In the accumulated data since the beginning of the harvest until January 1, ethanol sales by the South-Central units totaled 26.78 billion liters, marking an increase of 11.84%. The accumulated volume of hydrated ethanol totaled 17.29 billion liters (+20.34%), while anhydrous ethanol reached 9.49 billion liters (-0.92%).

Luciano Rodrigues, Director of Sector Intelligence at UNICA, explains that “despite the lower sugarcane milling, ethanol sales were sustained by the higher availability of ethanol produced from corn, lower export levels, a smaller proportion of sugarcane directed towards sugar production, and higher stocks at the start of the 2024/2025 cycle.” He concludes that “the available volume in the plants’ tanks and corn ethanol production in the first quarter of 2025 provide ample comfort for the domestic market supply during the inter-harvest period.”

CBios Market

The compulsory decarbonization target for 2024 established the need to acquire and retire 38.78 million Decarbonization Credits (CBios) by December 31. According to ANP data, the total availability of CBios for fulfilling the 2024 target, from April 1 to December 31 (the target fulfillment period), was 50.04 million. These numbers indicate that there was no shortage of CBios in the market at any point. “The issuance of credits by producers was more than sufficient to meet the legal requirements of distributors, ensuring compliance with the targets without generating any stress or market imbalance,” Rodrigues explains.

The UNICA executive adds that “the final balance of CBios after fulfilling the 2024 target resulted in a surplus of over 16 million credits available for trading. This available volume at the beginning of 2025 is already equivalent to one-third of the total target for this year.”

Link to tables