Executives from Shell, S&P Global, Rystad Energy, and ANP point out that although Brazil has competitive, low-carbon oil, the lack of predictability is stalling projects and sector development.
T&B Petroleum/Press Office IBP
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The opening day of OTC Brasil 2025 was marked by a strong warning from experts and executives: fiscal and regulatory instability is the main bottleneck that could cause Brazil to lose over US$100 billion in potential investments and jeopardize its future energy security. Discussions on Tuesday (28), at ExpoRio, reinforced the view that without predictability, the country will not be able to revitalize its exploration activity.
The global outlook was presented by Bob Fryklund, Chief Strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights, who highlighted a paradox: while the short term shows a “massive surplus of barrels,” the long-term outlook points to a “risk of shortage after 2035.” In this context, Fryklund identified Latin America, driven by Brazil and Guyana, as “the number one region in the world for new barrel additions over the next five years.”
Brazil’s potential to capture this demand was the focus of Shell Brasil President Cristiano Pinto da Costa, who was direct in stating that if oil exploration is not revitalized, there is a “serious risk of losing an investment context pointing to a potential of more than 100 billion dollars.” He recalled that Brazil offers a “dual advantage”: competitive costs and low-carbon intensity production.
However, the panel “Managing Above-Ground Risks in Offshore Oil & Gas Through the Energy Transition” delved into the challenges holding back this potential. Experts unanimously identified instability as the greatest threat. “Frequent changes in concession and tax regimes stall new projects. An exploration project needs legal, environmental, and regulatory stability. Without that, it doesn’t work,” warned Marcelo De Assis, Partner at MA2 Energy.
Alongside warnings about the business environment, Petrobras detailed its robust plan for the Equatorial Margin, reaffirming the importance of this new frontier for energy sovereignty and social inclusion. In a presentation, Mayara Aquino, Equatorial Margin Portfolio Manager at Petrobras, announced R$15 billion in investments for drilling 15 exploratory wells in the region, in addition to R$777.5 million allocated to 41 social and environmental projects, with a main focus on Amapá.
Daniel Leppert, Senior Vice President and Head of Latin America at Rystad Energy, stated that to ensure a secure energy system, “it is essential to guarantee new discoveries and continue exploring responsibly.” This view was shared by ANP Director Pietro Mendes, who emphasized that “even with advances in biofuels and electrification, we cannot give up on exploration activities.”
The need for a favorable business environment also extended to discussions on natural gas. In a panel on opportunities in Argentina, Martin Kaindl, from the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG), highlighted the potential of Vaca Muerta and described Brazil as the ‘ideal partner’ and the most important market for Argentine gas, reinforcing the idea of regional energy integration.
OTC Brasil 2025 runs through October 30, bringing together leading industry experts to discuss the future of offshore energy.
OTC Brasil 2025 is being held at ExpoRio Cidade Nova from October 28 to 30, with Petrobras as Master Sponsor; Shell and TotalEnergies as Diamond Sponsors; Equinor, ExxonMobil, Petronas, PRIO, and TechnipFMC as Platinum Sponsors; Brava, Chevron, and Repsol Sinopec as Gold Sponsors; bp as Silver Sponsor; and OceanPact, PERBRAS, Vallourec, and Tenaris as Bronze Sponsors.
Ecopetrol Brasil sponsors the Offshore Club; BTG Pactual Advisors is the event’s Official Bank; and the Secretariat of Energy and the Sea Economy of the State of Rio de Janeiro is the Strategic Partner. United Airlines is the official airline, and S&P Global Commodity Insights is the Knowledge Partner. B&T XP is the Official Foreign Exchange Broker; Ambipar is the Official Emission Offset Partner; and the Brazilian Society of Naval Engineering (Sobena) is the Guest Association.
Media partners include eixos, Petro&Química, Brasil Energia, TN Petróleo, Upstream, Offshore, and Oil & Gas Journal. Institutional supporters include ABEEMAR, ABEMI, ABESPETRO, ABIMAQ, ABPIP, ABRACO, AHK Mercosul, Arpel, CESAR, EIC, Energy Workforce & Technology Council, Firjan SENAI SESI, IADC, IAPG, Rede Petro ES, SBGf, Syndarma, Abeam, and Visit Rio.
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