Over the next five years (2025-2029), oil and gas production in onshore fields across the country is expected to maintain the growth trajectory already observed in 2024. This projection is based on the 2025 Annual Production Programs (PAPs) submitted to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) by companies operating producing fields. These documents outline production and movement forecasts for oil, natural gas, and other fluids in these fields over a five-year period.

Current projections indicate that by 2028, production levels may return to those seen in 2016 (298,935 barrels of oil equivalent per day – boe/d), highlighting the positive impact of regulatory measures implemented by the ANP.

In 2024, onshore production reached 232,328 boe/d, and the following production levels are forecasted for the coming years:

• 2025: 242,276 boe/d

• 2026: 262,255 boe/d

• 2027: 292,643 boe/d

• 2028: 300,271 boe/d

• 2029: 295,285 boe/d

In recent years, Brazil’s onshore oil and natural gas production has faced several challenges. A decline in production began in 2004, worsened in 2016, and culminated in 2022 with the lowest recorded production levels (206,792 boe/d). This scenario required coordinated efforts between the ANP and other institutions to reverse the trend and ensure the sustainability of onshore operations.

Strategic Measures for Onshore Production Growth

Among the strategic measures implemented, one of the key initiatives was the reduction of royalty rates on incremental production (above the projected production curve). This benefit was introduced by ANP Resolution No. 749 (2018) to offer more competitive conditions and encourage investment in mature fields.

Another important milestone was the establishment of clear rules for extending the production phase of concession contracts, formalized by National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) Resolution No. 6/2020. This measure provided stability to companies, ensuring the continuity of operations and attracting new investments in exchange for contract extensions.

In 2021, through ANP Resolution No. 853/2021, the agency introduced a royalty rate reduction benefit for small and medium-sized enterprises, recognizing their essential role in revitalizing onshore production.

In 2022, the ANP published Instruction No. 11, which established guidelines for evaluating new development plans (PDs) aimed at contract extensions. Since then, the agency has reviewed and approved 112 contract extensions exclusively in the onshore sector.

Impact of Petrobras' Divestment Program

Beyond the ANP and CNPE measures, Petrobras' divestment program, launched in 2019, played a crucial role in revitalizing the sector. This initiative led to the entry of new operators in the onshore segment, diversifying the market and attracting fresh investments. As a result, there are now more than 50 independent companies operating in Brazil’s onshore oil and gas sector.