The decade in which we are now is critical to facing the global climate emergency and the obstacles are more in the geopolitical field than in the technological one, said the participants of a panel on energy transition at the annual conference of the Research Center for Innovation in Gases of Greenhouse Effect (RCGI), on October 25, in São Paulo. “The issue is much more political, or rather geopolitical, than technological,” said researcher Paulo Artaxo, a professor at the Institute of Physics at the University of São Paulo (USP) and lead author of a chapter in the Panel’s most recent report. Intergovernmental Conference on Climate Change (IPCC). “The war in Ukraine has totally changed the energy issue and, on top of that, there are several new far-right governments, like Italy, Sweden and so on, with a new political perspective that will affect everything, including the results of COP 27 [ 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference] which will start in a few weeks in Egypt.”

According to the researcher, science already has the technology needed to halve global emissions of greenhouse gases by 2030. The technological challenge will come later, to further reduce it. “We don't have much more time; we have this particular decade to change. If we don't change by 2030, we'll probably say goodbye to everything we're talking about here,” he pointed out.

The vice president of Technology Engineering at the Anglo-Dutch company Shell, Ajay Mehta, who also participated in the panel, agreed. “This is an untenable situation. If we don't act in the next five, seven or ten years, the game is over. We all have a role to play.” Shell is a partner, together with the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (Fapesp), of the RCGI, an engineering research center based at USP. With investments of R$ 63 million, the RCGI seeks to make Brazilian science an international reference in support of public and private sector strategies to combat climate change.

According to Artaxo, the world is, in geopolitical terms, in a much more complicated moment now than at the previous COP, last year, as tensions between the United States, China and Russia increased, as well as tensions between the developed and the developing countries. Brazil, however, in his opinion, has a strategic advantage because it can cut 44% of its emissions quickly and cheaply, simply by avoiding fires and deforestation in the Amazon. “In addition, no other country has such great potential in wind and solar energy. Brazil has to exploit this strategic advantage to minimize problems related to vulnerability [to climate change].”

Participants highlighted the importance of maintaining forests and natural carbon sinks, in addition to reforestation. “São Paulo is proof that it is possible to reconcile the growing production of food and the reforestation of degraded areas”, commented the general and scientific director of the RCGI, Julio Meneghini.

The general director of R&D and Innovation at Shell, Oliver Wanbersie, stated that a challenge in the environment of private companies is to reflect on the great competitiveness between companies and the need to protect innovations, with patents, for example. “We need to rethink what we should and should not share in the face of the urgency of climate change to move forward together and faster,” he said. “There is a need for collaboration and flexibility. We need to produce more energy, but with a much smaller footprint.”

Panelists believe that there will still be decades of tension over the climate crisis, but that it will be a possible, albeit turbulent, mission to tackle global warming. There is no silver bullet, they pointed out. “I agree that biofuels are not going to be the only solution, and they should be a small part of it,” said Meneghini. “However, it is possible to integrate this with hydrogen production, as we will be doing on a small scale with funding from Shell, and integrate with sustainable aviation fuel production.” Hydrogen is seen by many as a strategic fuel for the future as it does not emit pollutants when used.

The experts also mentioned that there are still few incentives for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. “Why are there only 40 CCS projects in the world? Why is there no project like this in Brazil? The cost is still very high,” said Ajay Mehta. The capture, storage and use of greenhouse gas dioxide are perceived as tools to mitigate climate change. A project under development by the RCGI provides for the storage in saline caves at sea of ​​the gas extracted along with the oil in offshore wells, considered waste and which is normally released on oil platforms.

The panel on energy transition took place at the USP International Diffusion Center, during ETRI 2022 (Energy Transition Research & Innovation), the first annual RCGI conference to be held in person after the emergence of the covid-19 pandemic. More information about the event can be read at this link.