A “very large surge” in Brazilian iron ore exports is being forecast by analyst Commodore Research & Consultancy, and is set to boost the capesize market.

Brazilian miner Vale announced that its shipment volume this was expected to reach a record 321m tonnes. Given the miner 144.7m tonnes in the first half of 2014, this equates to a 22% increase in shipments in the second half of the year versus the first half.

“Going forward, a very large surge in Brazilian iron ore shipments is about to begin and demand for capesize vessels is set to find significant support,” said Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of Commodore in a note to clients.

“Not only will demand for capesizes in the Atlantic basin increase by a drastic amount, the upcoming surge in shipments (the majority of which are shipped to buyers in Asia) will mean that a great deal more capesize vessels will be engaged in long-haul shipments that in effect makes the overall availability of capesize vessels in the spot chartering market much tighter.”

Despite a 23.7m tonne dip in Vale shipments in the first half of 2014 compared with the second half of 2013 capesize rates have averaged $14,135 per day in the first half of this year compared to just $6,136 per day in the first half of 2013.