After experiencing a recession in 2020 triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Brazilian economy will grow again in 2021. Projection by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) shows that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand by 4% in the year that comes. Economic activity will be boosted by the 4.4% increase in industrial GDP. The forecasts are in the special edition of the Conjunctural Report - Brazilian Economy, which the CNI released this Wednesday (16).

The study shows that a significant part of economic growth will be explained by the comparison base with 2020, marked by a recession due to the effects of the new coronavirus pandemic on economic activity. It is estimated that, this year, GDP will fall 4.3% compared to 2019, and industrial GDP, 3.5%.

CNI President Robson Braga de Andrade estimates that the uncertainties regarding the economy remain high and will only decrease with the immunization of the largest portion of the population. The maintenance of the recovery will depend not only on economic measures but also on public health.

He notes, however, that the first step has already been taken. The economy will continue to recover from the losses suffered throughout this year. In the case of industry, for most sectors, the recovery has already taken place in 2020. The great challenge for Brazil is to make the country grow above 2% per year in a sustained manner, that is, for a long period.

“The challenge is the transition from the resumption to sustained growth already in 2021. To do this, the country, more than ever, needs to eliminate Custo Brasil. It is necessary to provide a favorable business environment that offers legal certainty, improves expectations and encourages investment, economic growth and social development ”, says Robson Braga de Andrade.

The president stresses the need to move forward with structural reforms, including tax and administrative reforms. Brazil also needs to attract investments in infrastructure by modernizing regulatory frameworks that provide legal certainty and guarantee respect for contracts.

For the president of CNI, the approval of the pension reform will allow companies to have more clarity and transparency in calculating taxes. In the case of administrative reform, he said, it is essential for the Union, states and municipalities to be able to reduce and plan spending.

“We have a positive expectation for growth in the industry next year. People will return to the job market, and we have important agendas to guarantee the country's competitiveness ”, he says.

Robson Braga also highlights the importance of moving forward in international negotiations, as in the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union and in agendas with the United States.