Brazilian industrial activity increased in May in 12 of the 15 locations analyzed by the Regional Monthly Industrial Survey, in comparison with April. The result, released today (8) by the IBGE, is “a reflection of the return of the production of some units after the suspension of activities due to the pandemic of Covid-19 in March and, mainly, in April", explains Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of research.

The largest industrial park in the country, São Paulo raised the national average (7%) by presenting an increase in industrial activity by 10.6% in May. Paraná (24.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%) were the other two places with the greatest influence on the national positive rate. “The vehicle sector, which is very strong in São Paulo and Paraná, played an important role in this increase in May,” exemplifies Bernardo, who also cites the food and oil products sectors as influencing this index.

In addition to Paraná, Pernambuco (20.5%) and Amazonas (17.3%) were the places that showed the strongest increases. The first two grew again after negative results in March and April, a period in which they accumulated decreases of 31.8% and 25.4%, respectively. Amazonas, meanwhile, interrupts three months of consecutive negative rates, with an accumulated drop of 53.4%.

In addition to these locations, the Northeast Region (12.7%) and Bahia (7.6%) had results greater than the national average. Minas Gerais (6.3%), Santa Catarina (5.4%), Rio de Janeiro (5.2%), Mato Grosso (4.4%) and Goiás (3%) complete the list of places with an increase in industrial activity in the month of May. Only three locations showed a decrease, with Espírito Santo (-7.8%) having the highest decrease, resulting in the third month followed by a decrease in the state, with an accumulated loss of 30.9% in this period. The other two were Ceará and Pará, both down 0.8%.

Increase still does not recover the level 

Despite the growth from April to May, Bernardo explains that the index is still below the level, as observed in the comparison with the same month of the previous year. "In São Paulo, even with the positive rate in April, May presented the second worst level of the industry in the historical series, losing exactly to the previous month, April 2020", he points out. The beginning of the historical series of the survey was in January 2002.

Compared to May 2019, there was a drop in 14 of the 15 surveyed locations. In addition to the so-called negative calendar effect - May 2020 had 20 working days, two less than May of the previous year - the slowdown in production due to the effects of social isolation due to the pandemic affected the production process of several industrial units in the country. São Paulo had a reduction of 18.1%, the fourth negative rate followed in this comparison. Ceará (-50.8%) and Amazonas (-47.3%) presented the most intense decreases.

In the accumulated of 2020 (January-May), whose national result was a fall of 11.2%, 13 of the 15 cataloged places presented a reduction in activities, with emphasis on Ceará (-21.8%), Amazonas (-20.7 %) and Spirit (-18.5%). Only Rio de Janeiro (2.8%) and Pará (0.9%) showed increases in this index.

In the accumulated index of the last 12 months (national loss of 5.4%), 12 of the 15 surveyed places registered negative rates in May 2020. All, however, had a loss of pace compared to the rates registered in April. Ceará (from -3.1% to -7.9%), Amazonas (from 0.5% to -3.8%), Santa Catarina (from-2.6% to -6.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (from -3.7% to -7.7%), Paraná (from 1.7% to -2.0%), São Paulo (from -2.5% to -5.6%), Bahia (from -2.5% to -5.1%), Northeast Region (from -3.5% to -5.9%), Pernambuco (from -2.5% to -4.5%) and Rio de January (from 5.1% to 3.9%) showed the main losses in this comparison.