Brazil accounts for almost 25% of global iron ore trade volume. It’s the second-largest iron ore exporting country. It’s also home to Vale, one of the largest mining companies.

So shipments out of Brazil are a key metric to watch. Higher export volumes have a positive effect on shipping rates, which are a critical variable that moves dry bulk shipping companies’ revenues, earnings, cash flows, and share prices.

For July, Brazil’s total iron ore exports increased 5% to 31.1 million metric tonnes, or mt, from 29.6 million mt the same month a year ago. But revenues generated saw a decline of 18% year-over-year to $2.1 billion from $2.6 billion. The average price recorded a steep decline to $70.1 per mt from $89.8 per mt.

Meanwhile, month-over-month, shipments rose 5.5% from 29.5 million mt in June. Overall export sales fell at the same rate, from $2.3 billion in exports in June.

Australia and Brazil’s outlook

According to data from Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (or BREE), Australian and Brazilian iron ore exports are expected to increase by a total of 132 million tonnes or 15% this year.

Australian iron ore exports are predicted at 680 million tonnes this year. This is a 17% year-over-year rise. Meanwhile, Brazilian iron ore exports this year are likely to touch 361 million tonnes—up 9% year-over-year.

As per Goldman Sachs Group, global seaborne output is likely to exceed demand by 72 million tons this year, 175 million tons in 2015, and 323 million tons in 2018.

Positive outlooks from both major markets are likely to support Capesize rates and have a positive impact on vessel demand. So companies like DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX), Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM), Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM), and Safe Bulkers Inc. (SB) are likely to be affected positively. The Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA) should also be affected positively.