The Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan) launches, this Tuesday (June 23), the 11th edition of the Oil Yearbook in Rio. The publication arrives at a time of profound transformation in the global energy market. In a scenario marked by geopolitical tensions, reconfiguration of supply chains, and growing concern over energy security, the federation’s publication shows how Brazil and the state of Rio de Janeiro are strengthening their strategic role as reliable suppliers of oil and gas to the world.

Despite the positive results in 2025 — national oil production grew 12% and Rio de Janeiro’s output rose 13% compared to the previous year — the Yearbook’s data point to challenges for the long-term sustainability of production. The low drilling of exploratory wells raises a warning about the need for reserve replacement and for expanding the capacity to respond to the natural decline of production in the medium and long term.

In 2025, only 8 wildcat exploratory wells were completed in the country, 7 of them in the state of Rio de Janeiro. This year, there has been only 1 wildcat exploratory well, located off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Reserve data also reinforce Firjan’s concern.

According to the publication, there was a 1% reduction in the country’s total reserves and a 3% reduction in Rio de Janeiro’s reserves in 2025. Proven reserves, however, posted slight growth of 4% both nationwide and in the state of Rio de Janeiro. As a result, last year the Reserve-to-Production (R/P) ratio for Rio de Janeiro stood at 12.8 years.

The federation stressed that market competitiveness also depends on strengthening producing regions. “There is no denying that oil is a true lever for development. But for this to translate more effectively into reality, it is necessary to protect producing regions, ensuring fair compensation for the externalities imposed by activities in these territories. We need to guarantee a business environment conducive to the industry taking root and provide adequate conditions for the whole surrounding society,” said Firjan president Luiz Césio Caetano.

Representing companies that operate in many of these regions, ABPIP – the Brazilian Association of Independent Oil and Gas Producers – also offers reflections on actions that affect market competitiveness. In an article, the entity cites the role of independent companies in boosting production in mature and marginal fields. However, in order to maintain economically sustainable production levels, the association calls for improvements in the business environment through regulatory simplification, legal certainty, access to financing and credit instruments, infrastructure and market access, incentives for innovation and operational efficiency, and integration of the supplier chain.

Dynamic data

“The Oil Yearbook in Rio brings together analyses and perspectives from public institutions, companies, associations, and experts on the challenges and opportunities that should shape the future of the oil, natural gas, and energy industry in the coming years. In addition to the Yearbook’s dynamic dashboards and the Government Take Guide, the edition also includes the Oil Map in Rio, another interactive tool that brings together the main structures and assets of the oil production chain. The initiative expands access to information and offers an integrated view of the infrastructure that supports Rio de Janeiro’s leadership in the national oil industry,” highlights Firjan’s general manager for Oil, Gas, Energy, and Shipbuilding, Karine Fragoso.

The dynamic data from the Oil Yearbook in Rio can be accessed through the Firjan Observatory (Observatório Firjan).

Among the main oil market figures for the state and the country, the Yearbook highlights:

• A record in the state’s oil production, at just over 1.2 billion barrels in 2025, equivalent to just over 3.3 million barrels/day. Growth of 13% compared to 2024;
• Daily figures for the first 4 months of 2026 already show new increases of 9%, reaching levels above 3.6 million barrels/day;
• For the 6th consecutive year, Rio de Janeiro’s share of national production increased and reached 88% in 2025;
• Total national production reached a level close to 1.4 billion barrels in 2025, equivalent to nearly 3.8 million barrels/day. 12% higher than the previous year;
• Daily figures for the first 4 months of 2026 also show new increases of 10%, reaching levels above 4.1 million barrels/day;

The effects of this activity directly impact Rio de Janeiro’s economy. The resources distributed to the state and producing municipalities play a relevant role in financing public policies, infrastructure investments, and the promotion of regional development. In 2025, the oil industry contributed R$ 30.23 billion in Royalties and R$ 14.72 billion in Special Participations to the state and municipalities of Rio de Janeiro.

The industry’s relevance can also be seen in the labor market. In 2025, 94,297 jobs were recorded as directly associated with the oil market in the exploration and production, downstream, and supplier chain segments.

Contents of the 2026 Oil Yearbook in Rio:

• Firjan presents its market view in 3 separate articles. The first addresses the effects of changes in energy geopolitics, highlighting Latin America as a new oil powerhouse led by Brazil, but also highly relevant for Guyana, Argentina, and the potential resumption of production in Venezuela.

The second article evaluates the industry’s ability to meet market demands, signaling that the national industry has been performing quite positively in certain segments such as exploration activities, while still lacking greater participation in supplying production units.

Finally, the federation presents a predictive model translating opportunities for workers applied to the oil market. The results point to a growth trend of 2.5% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, compared with the 2025 base year.

• In its contribution, Petrobras highlights significant figures for the Boaventura Energy Complex, with planned investments of $3.2 billion, as part of a total of $20 billion through 2030 in its projects in the areas of Refining, Transportation and Marketing (RTC), Petrochemicals, and Fertilizers.

• The National Organization of the Oil Industry (ONIP) points to the importance of industrial connections as a decisive element for the competitiveness of the O&G production chain, following international practices. In Brazil, there is potential in new markets such as decommissioning, where closer ties are being observed among engineering companies, ports, and industrial recyclers.

• The geopolitical impacts resulting from conflicts in the Middle East and the consequent restrictions on energy logistics through the Strait of Hormuz for the international market, highlighting that the concentration of global production in unstable regions represents a growing risk for global energy security, are pointed out in Rystad Energy’s analysis. The company also highlights Brazil as a strategic alternative for the expansion of global supply.

• Energy security’s incorporation of factors such as institutional stability, regulatory reliability, and resilient supply chains is the theme addressed by the Energy Research Office (EPE). Projections indicate that the country could reach production of 4.9 million barrels per day in 2035, with a peak of 5.1 million barrels per day in 2032.

• The federal government, through the Chief of Staff’s Office, addresses the issue of new exploratory frontiers, given all the concerns surrounding reserve replacement in the country. The article discusses everything from environmental licensing for drilling at the mouth of the Amazon to geopolitical issues reflected across the continent. The content also presents analyses dedicated to the Equatorial Margin Region, the Pelotas Basin, and the Exploration of Unconventional Resources.

• PPSA explains what to expect from the pre-salt in the coming years, stating that the peak of the federal government’s share in production-sharing contracts should occur in 2033, when a volume of 506 thousand barrels/day is expected for its share. After that year, the company foresees the beginning of a gradual decline in total production from the fields currently operating under the production-sharing regime.

• Siemens Energy highlights technologies for the future of offshore operations, emphasizing the electrification process of offshore activities. At the same time, it addresses the digitalization process, intelligent systems, and the advancement of highly secure remote operating systems, as well as technologies for decarbonizing operations.

• Veirano Advogados presents an assessment of the new General Environmental Licensing Law and the expansion of IBAMA’s role, reflecting on innovations such as the Special Environmental License, which may conclude certain licensing processes within up to 12 months.

Service:

Launch of the Oil Yearbook in Rio

Date: Tuesday, June 23

Location: MAM Rio – Museum of Modern Art of Rio de Janeiro (Av. Infante Dom Henrique 85 – Aterro do Flamengo)

Program: 5:00 p.m. – Opening ceremony; 6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. – Networking event.