The Industrial Survey, a survey by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), points to positive results in May 2021. Industrial production, which had fallen in April, grew. The index was 52.8 points and is the best result for the month since 2017, which indicates a more intense May than the previous four years. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a cut-off line at 50 points, data above this value indicate growth and below, a drop compared to the previous month.

In addition, the index for the evolution of the number of employees rose to 51.1 points, moving away from the 50-point line. It's already been 11 consecutive months without the index registering a drop in employment in the industry. The Installed Capacity Utilization (UCI) reached 70% in May 2021, after growth of two percentage points compared to April. The UCI is 15 percentage points above that recorded in May 2020, which was the first month of recovery after the crisis of the first wave of Covid-19. The percentage is the highest for the month since 2014, when it reached 71%.

The effective-to-planned stock index registered 49.2 points in May, a decrease of 0.4 points compared to April. Still, the index remains relatively close to the 50-point line that indicates inventories are close to what companies plan.

The manager of Economic Analysis, Marcelo Azevedo, explains that it is important to note that stocks are close to what is desired. This fact, together with the positive activity, is reflected in the positive expectations for the coming months.

“It's different from what happened last year, when there was widespread pessimism, in March and April with the start of the pandemic. This year, even in March, when we noticed a drop, businessmen never stopped being optimistic and, since then, this optimism has been increasing”, he says.

Investment intention above the historical average

The optimism of industrial entrepreneurs regarding the next six months increased again in June. The demand expectation index increased 1.2 points compared to May and is 11.2 points higher than that registered in June 2020. This is the highest level of the indicator in 2021. The optimism in relation to exports remained practically constant in relation to to the previous month: increase of 0.1 point.

The investment intention increased compared to May and remains above the historical average. The investment intention index reached 57 points in June 2021. This represents an increase of 1.2 points compared to May. The index is 15.6 points above that registered in June 2020.