The strong recovery in demand, especially in China, has continued to drive prices for energy and mineral commodities in recent weeks. Negative temperatures in Texas amplified this effect on oil, which was the highlight in February, with an 18% gain. For analysts and specialized consultants, the oil rally has not yet run out and quotations may reach US $ 70 or US $ 80 a barrel by the middle of the year.

Brent crude ended Friday with a fall of 1.12%, at $ 66.13 a barrel (contract due in April), reducing the accumulated appreciation of the week to 5.12%. The WTI, in turn, fell 3.2% on the day, to $ 61.50 a barrel, up 3.8% on the week and 17.8% on the month.

The cold wave in the United States brought down the production of oil and gas in Texas, which presents itself as the largest producer in the American territory, and may have removed up to 4 million barrels per day from the market - there is no consensus around this volume and there is who talks about impact of 1 million barrels.

Whatever the exact number, the adverse climate has taken a toll and oil has returned to the levels seen before the covid-19 pandemic. The commodity's surprising strength has prompted consultants and investment banks to revise short-term projections.

Goldman Sachs raised the price of a barrel in the Northern Hemisphere from $ 65 to $ 75 in the Northern Hemisphere, while Bank of America (BofA) raised Brent's barrel from $ 50 to $ 60 in 2021, but kept the price projected for 2022 unchanged at $ 55 a barrel.

According to the head of oil prices and refining industry analysis at S&P Global Platts, Richard Joswick, the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC +) on the 4th will be "critical and revealing" - in the meeting, the production of april will be defined. "If OPEC + miscalculates and supply increases disappoint, we could see the market even tighter and prices higher," he said in a note.

On the other hand, ponders the expert, a strong increase in production could put downward pressure on the markets. "But the likelihood of firmer prices is greater than that of lower prices in the coming months."

Iron ore also ended the month on a high, packed by steel demand in China. According to the specialized publication Fastmarkets MB, the price of 62% iron ore rose 0.9% at the Chinese port of Qingdao on Friday, to $ 175.78 per ton.

As a result, the commodity closed February with an appreciation of almost 11%. In the year, the gain is 9.5%. In the assessment of analyst Daniel Sasson, from Itaú BBA, the price force at the end of the month can be explained by the steel production in the return of the prolonged Lunar New Year holiday in China.

In a results conference call on Friday, the expert said, Vale indicated that the level of capacity utilization of Chinese steelmakers is around 92% and 93%, considered "very healthy". Even so, the bank does not assess that the current price level is not sustainable.