Yesterday, 11/02, the 10-year 10-year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2029) was launched at the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). According to the document, investments in energy infrastructure to supply the necessary expansion until 2029 may reach R $ 2.3 trillion. Of the total investments, 77.4% will be absorbed by the oil and gas sector. The electric energy generation and transmission area will represent 19.6%, including distributed generation. 3% will be used to increase the supply of biofuels.

The figures for the oil and gas sector are significant. The expectation is that oil production will grow by 70%, going from the current 3.27 million barrels / day to 5.54 million barrels / day in the 10-year horizon. Oil exports will also be significant and should rise from the current 1.5 to 3.4 million barrels / day, an increase of 130%. The production of natural gas should reach 199 million m3 / day, which will represent an increase of 74% in relation to the current 115 million.

Studies indicate that the Internal Energy Supply (OIE), the energy needed to move the economy, will reach 380 million toe (Mtoe - million tons of oil equivalent) in 2029, resulting in a 2.9% growth over the same period. year. Of this amount, renewable sources may reach a 48% share in 2029, which keeps Brazil in the commitment signed in the Paris Agreement to maintain a low carbon economy and to promote greater participation of renewables in the energy matrix.

For the Minister, the PDE is one of the proposals within the form that the Ministry intends to conduct. “To conduct in a transparent manner, with dialogue, with respect to the sectors linked to the MME, to present the program that will give the beacon so that we can effectively provide the energy security that our country needs for economic development, as we all know, energy is the basis of all infrastructure in any country, ”he said.

Still on the energy sector, the expansion of the installed capacity of electric generation of the National Interconnected System (SIN) forecast for the ten-year horizon is 75.5 GW, of which 60 GW in centralized generation and 15.5 GW of self-production and distributed generation .

With regard to electricity transmission, total investments are expected to reach approximately R$ 103.7 billion over the decade, with R $ 73.6 billion in transmission lines and R $ 30.1 billion in substations, including border facilities. The PDE foresees an increase of 55.8 thousand km in transmission lines, and an increase of 172 GVA in transformation capacity.

Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 

The Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) is an information document prepared annually by EPE under the guidelines and support of the team of the Secretariat for Energy Planning and Development (SPE / MME) and the Secretariat for Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (SPG) / MME).

Its primary objective is to indicate the prospects for the expansion of the energy sector in the ten-year horizon, within an integrated vision for the different ones made available tomorrow, 12, after publication of energy sources. Such a view allows to extract important elements for the planning of the energy sector, with benefits in terms of increased reliability, reduced production costs and reduced environmental impacts.

In this edition, the PDE brings some news, among them: a ten-year planning horizon, in addition to the base year for starting studies; discussions on operational flexibility, modernization of the hydrothermal park and assessment of economic competitiveness of plants at the end of the contract or termination of subsidies in the cost of operation; more detailed data on transmission investments; and also a special focus on decentralized generation, and sensitivity analyzes for distributed micro and mini-generation.

The final version of PDE 2029 is now available in the Federal Official Gazette (DOU).