The National Electricity System Operator - ONS, together with the Energy Research Company - EPE and the Electric Energy Trading Chamber - CCEE, released this Friday, the data of the 1st Four-monthly Load Review of 2020 for the Annual Planning of the Energy Operation - 2020-2024 period. Impacted by Covid-19's containment measures, electricity consumption is expected to fall 0.9% in the year. The previous forecast was to grow 4.2%.

As a result of the adoption of quarantines in several regions of the country, economic activity has significantly decreased. The projection of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP was revised to zero, which directly influences energy consumption. The load, which was initially expected to be 70,825 average MW, is now estimated at 67,249 average MW. A reduction of 3,576 average MW. In comparison with the consumption of 2019, which was 67,835 average MW, it is estimated a decrease of 586 average MW (- 0.9%).

The drop in the projection of the load occurs in all regions of the country, but the Southeast should be the most impacted. In December, when the forecast for 2020 was made, the estimate was for the consumption of 41,060 average MW, which was revised to 38,960 average MW, with a reduction of 2,100 average MW. The Northeast had a decrease of 553 average MW, the South of 517 average MW and the North of 406 average MW.

2020 reduction impacts next years 

When reviewing the growth forecast of 4.2% for a retraction of 0.9% in 2020, the institutions also estimate a reduction in the load for the coming years. The previous forecast that the country would reach the level of 70 thousand average MW of load this year was postponed to 2021. As a consequence, for the period from 2019 to 2024, the expectation of annual growth was revised from 3.8% to 2, 9%.