The total GDP of the soy and biodiesel chain is expected to grow by 20.72% this year compared to 2022, according to a survey conducted by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP, in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oils Industries (ABIOVE).

The positive GDP result of the productive chain in the second quarter reflected the performance of the agro-industry, especially in biodiesel and crushing and refining. This had implications for the labor market in the agro-industrial sector. Job creation increased by 4.63% compared to the same quarter in 2022. The chain's exports also reached a record of $26.8 billion, driven by higher volumes, especially of soybeans and soybean meal.

However, due to unfavorable price trends in the second quarter, the real income of the chain is expected to decline by 6.23% in 2023 compared to 2022. Furthermore, due to this negative pressure, the representation of the chain's GDP in the agribusiness and the Brazilian GDP has been revised downward to 24.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the productive chain has maintained its significant economic scale, with a GDP estimated at an impressive R$ 637 billion in 2023.

Labor Market

The employed population in the soy and biodiesel chain in the second quarter of 2023 was 2.32 million people, which is 12.26% higher than in the second quarter of the previous year. However, compared to the immediately preceding quarter, there was a decrease of 3.14%, likely due to the completion of the soybean harvest in the main producing regions of the country. As a result, the participation of the employed population in the productive chain in the agribusiness and in the overall population of Brazil remained significant at 10.07% and 2.34%, respectively.

The agro-industry showed improvement compared to the previous report. The employed population increased by 4.63% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, attributed to biodiesel and animal feed production.

Foreign Trade

The second quarter of 2023 saw a record in exports of products from the productive chain, considering the historical series that began in 2010, reaching $26.8 billion. Compared to the same period in 2022, there was a 10.04% increase in value and a 30.88% increase in volume.

The growth in the value of exports was due to the higher volumes of soybeans and soybean meal shipped, despite a reduction in the prices of these products by 15.28% and 3.61%, respectively.

In the comparison between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, there was a decrease in the values sent to the Middle East (-30.92%), Africa (-27.90%), the European Union (-11.57%), East Asia (-4.51%), and Southeast Asia (-0.30%). In contrast, values increased for North America (+100.66%) and China (+21%), both of which represented 60.58% of the chain's exports in the quarter.