International Article

Iran Upstream: Separating “Risk” from “Uncertainty”

AFRAZ ADVISERS
05/05/2016 16:56
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A sanctions-free Iran represents one of the most attractive places in the world to produce oil & gas. This alone should be attractive to international oil & gas companies, whose business’ relies on a higher dollar per barrel cost of oil than what we have seen recently. Why then, now that Iran is ripe for international investment and expertise, are oil companies still hesitant?

 

For many, Iran is automatically filed under “too hard”, and discounted for any number of surface reasons. But as we’ll explain, smart companies are realising that the hesitation of the uninitiated in Iran further adds to the opportunity of acting swiftly and decisively to attain early-mover advantages.

 

Iran is not easy to evaluate for companies left to their own devices. Given the country has spent a decade in sanctions-fuelled isolation, doing any sort of due diligence as an international oil & gas company is difficult without committing significant resources to the task. And, as described by our guests in our recent webinar, after having decided to pursue Iran’s E&P opportunities, doing business comes with its own intricacies that can scare off those not prepared.

 

However the fact remains; it is virtually inevitable that Iran will need to produce as much oil as it can in the coming decades – a goal that depends a great deal on the supply of international expertise, technology and investment.

 

Many companies are interested in providing these key functions. But they have difficulty accepting the uncertainties that a decade of crippling economic sanctions, industry-wide technological isolation, and now a sweeping reform in energy (that predictably has the domestic industry dealing with growing pains) brings.

 

Herein lies the great opportunity for international E&P companies in Iran, for companies who understand the game.

 

In the absence of clarity, international upstream players are confusing “risk” with the “uncertainty” in the Iranian upstream market. Rather than seeking expert help to truly understand and mitigate these challenges, companies seem more comfortable with taking a “wait and see” approach with the rest of the herd until it’s safe to enter. The problem with this strategy is that the most productive foreign companies in Iran are going to be the ones that were there first – and it will actually be much harder to compete when the industry perceives it as safe, because competition will be higher and opportunities in the form of fields and projects will be fewer.

 

For most companies, evaluating entry into Iran is considered too much of a “risk” at this time. The reality is these “risks” are actually uncertainties.

 

We understand this sentiment, because we are at the center of the Iranian oil & gas renaissance and speak to many new ventures leaders on a weekly basis.

 

For instance, it is widely believed that opportunities in Iran are going to be given to pre-selected companies, such as the majors. The presumption is that the independents and mid caps will be left fighting over scraps, being overlooked or even priced out of developing fields in the country.

 

In reality, it is a far more nuanced picture, where history and the current objectives of the NIOC are dictating the sorts of companies that will be most attractive to the country’s fields, and thus more likely to be awarded contracts.

 

One of the key proponents of this is the objective voiced from the NIOC itself (that has seemed to go largely unnoticed in the wider community). It is clear from the position of the NIOC that Iran is strategically positioning itself to build a national E&P sector – something which does not currently exist. The Iranian Petroleum Contract is the mechanism by which the country will achieve this – by transferring the skills of foreign companies to Iranian ones.

 

So it’s not the case that Iran is simply “for the big boys”. It’s for international oil & gas companies – regardless of size – who can align themselves with the NIOC’s objectives.

 

Another example of what makes international companies skittish on Iran is the actions of private event organisers: there’s no better way to scare off international investment than to change plans time and time again, giving the impression that international companies will be entering an unorganised, politically unpredictable environment that is risky for their reputations and therefore too much for their shareholders.

 

These ideas have collectively combined to make majority of international E&P companies feel it is too “risky” to make a move, and that it will be cheaper and safer to let the dust of settle before they can seriously evaluate whether Iran presents itself as an attractive opportunity.

 

All of this doubt and perception of risk makes us excited for our clients, who are set to thrive. They know how to differentiate between the risk and uncertainty, and evaluate Iran more accurately.

 

Over the last couple of years, we have been working with E&P companies helping them to address uncertainties and plan their entry into Iran during the most attractive time to evaluate the country – now – when competition is lowest. This is what oil companies have done for decades around the world and Iran is no exception.

 

Our E&P clients are varied – they do include some of the largest oil companies in the world, but also some of the smallest and everything in between. They specialise in different areas of the E&P spectrum and they have a wide variety of strategies and expertise.

 

They all understand the significance and strategic value of Iran. They have the entrepreneurial sense to seize these opportunities before others realise the increasing importance of low cost production basins in E&P companies’ portfolios moving forward.

 

Unlike their competitors, our clients do not hesitate because they’ve heard rumours about who will be “let in”. They do not dismiss the opportunity because they’ve read somewhere that Iran will only be suitable for the majors. They certainly don’t let an event cancelation or a piece of sensationalist journalism blur their vision of the bigger picture.

 

Although our clients are a diverse group of exploration companies, they all have one thing in common. They all depend on one source of Iranian E&P data, analysis and expertise.

 

Us.

 

Together with Afraz, you can identify which factors are mere uncertainties, rather than the risks they might look like on the surface, without committing vast time and budget to the task.

 

What we offer is a ready-made tool kit to perform a screening of the market that makes entering into Iran a less risky venture

 

This “ready made” toolkit for evaluating Iranian E&P opportunities is unique.

 

It can be used for

 

Screening all fields on offer from the NIOC

Running economic analysis to short list attractive fields, or even

Performing softer tasks, like planning trips to Iran to meet key partners, or develop market entry strategies.

We support you with everything up until the point of entering the NIOC’s data room.

 

We have the first up-to-date database of current field analytics: the insights that an E&P company would need to perform a high level screening on any field on offer from the NIOC.

 

We spent three years collecting raw information and data from various public sources, finding and hiring the world’s most qualified talent to corroborate and technically assure our information and creating all the economic modeling tools and analysis that E&P companies perform when evaluating any new opportunity.

 

We also advise clients on the objectives of Iran and the NIOC, so they can create a market entry strategy that is aligned with all stakeholders, which is significantly more likely to result in a successful bid for a project. We are truly a one-stop-shop for insights and guidance on Iranian E&P.

 

Our clients get an enormous strategic advantage, clarity on the world’s most exciting exploration & production opportunity, and a long-term partner whose reputation grows with each new successful client story in Iran.

 

It’s why in 3 short years we have grown to lead the world in providing oil & gas companies with everything they need to evaluate and enter Iran.

 

If you work in international E&P and wish to be well placed for upcoming round of tenders, contact us here to see how easy and affordable it is to join the smartest oil companies in the room.

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